000 AGXX40 KNHC 230736 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 236 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. The tail end of a cold front will clip the northeast Gulf through the morning. A trough, which is the remnants of an old frontal boundary, is located in the Texas coastal waters. This trough will lift northwest and move inland in the next several hours as high pressure ridging extending from the Carolinas builds in across the basin. Mainly moderate northeast to east flow prevails across the eastern half of the Gulf, with moderate east to southeast flow across the western half. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the northern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft across the southern Gulf. Mainly moderate return flow will dominate the basin later today through the middle of next week, except near the Straits of Florida where northeast to east fresh to strong flow will develop Saturday night through Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Seas will build to 5 to 8 ft in the southeast Gulf as a result. Northeast flow northwest of the Yucatan peninsula will occasionally pulse to fresh during the overnight hours as a nocturnal jet develops. Otherwise, little change is forecast for the next several days with no significant cold fronts expected at least through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A relatively tight pressure gradient across the north central portion of the basin is supporting fresh to strong northeast flow through the approach to the Windward Passage, in the lee of central Cuba, and in the lee of the Dominican Republic. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas are measured at 4 to 7 ft across the area as well, except up to 8 ft near the Windward Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic. The hotspots of stronger winds will persist through the upcoming weekend, expanding in coverage to across most of the basin by the end of the weekend through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Seas will build to 6 to 10 ft by early next week as the stronger winds increase in areal extent. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A trio of weak troughs are analyzed across the southwest north Atlantic basin, with a weak cold front also dropping into the far northwest portion. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are reported in the southeast, with gentle to moderate variable winds elsewhere, except locally strong near the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of 65W and outside the Bahamas, with 7 to 10 ft seas in mixed northeast and northwest swells east of 65W. High pressure will build in across the basin from the north later today into the weekend with a swath of fresh to strong northeast to east flow expected across the entire southeast half of the basin tonight, with seas building to 6 to 10 ft across the basin as well. The high will slide to the east through the weekend with fresh to strong winds becoming confined to the waters south of 25N through the day Saturday, then to across the waters south of 27N Sunday into Monday as new high pressure builds in from the Carolinas. The pressure gradient breaks down and relaxes by Tuesday as a front or remnant trough moves across the basin, allowing for winds to diminish through the middle of next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.