000 AGXX40 KNHC 221935 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 235 PM EST THU DEC 22 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A broad surface high pressure anchored over the central U.S. extends a ridge axis SE across the northern Gulf. Light to moderate NE to E winds are in the E basin while E to SE winds of the same magnitude are W of 90W. Seas range from 1 to 3 ft except in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula were seas are up to 4 ft. A cold front extending across the E CONUS SW to Texas will enter the northern basin this evening. The cold front then will rapidly slide east to southeast over the eastern Gulf tonight, as the high pressure north of the front propagates toward the eastern United States. Winds will become moderate to fresh NE behind this front through Friday morning over the N and E basin. The front will have moved out of the Gulf by Friday evening as the center of high pressure moves over the western Atlantic waters. Moderate return flow associated with the ridge will then establish across the basin through Sunday night. No changes in the seas are expected until Sunday afternoon when a new strong surface ridge N of area will support 5 ft seas in the SE Gulf. A tight pressure gradient generated by this new ridge will lead to fresh to strong E flow in the Straits of Florida and the SE basin starting Sunday night and continuing through Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure north of the region will shift eastward through Sunday. However, fresh to strong trades and rough seas to 11 ft will continue in the tropical north Atlantic several more days as high pressure builds over the central Atlantic behind a cold front off the east coast of the United States Friday and Saturday. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage through Friday evening, then will become more persistent during the weekend and early next week as the high pressure builds north of the region. Fresh to strong winds will also return to the south- central Caribbean Saturday amplifying W and E through mid next week as the high to the north builds eastward toward the central Atlantic. Near gale force winds will become possible north of the Colombia coast by early Tuesday morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A weakening stationary front extending from 31N67W to the central Bahamas will be absorbed by a re-enforcing cold front that crosses the NW waters tonight. The cold front then will rapidly move eastward over the northern zones through Friday night as high pressure builds eastward across the eastern Unites States. The high will cross waters N of the area Friday night and Saturday, thus increasing the NE winds to 20 to 25 kt across the northeastern zones with seas building to 9 ft. Northeast trades will also become moderate to fresh E of the Bahamas, thus building seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected during this time frame between the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This area of high pressure will move over the central Atlantic late this weekend which will allow wind and seas to decrease over the forecast zones. Another area of high pressure building north of the area early next week will once again increase east to northeast winds to fresh to strong over the southern zones, along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft south of 28N, outside of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.