000 AGXX40 KNHC 220625 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 AM EST THU DEC 22 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A ridge axis from the Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico will weaken this morning while a cold front approaches the northern Gulf from the central United States. Winds through this morning will range form moderate to fresh over the southern Gulf basin, to light and variable over the northern Gulf, closer to the ridge axis. Seas are ranging from 1 to 2 ft over the northern Gulf to 3 to 5 ft over the southern Gulf. The cold front will move across the northern Gulf later today, then rapidly slide east to southeast over the eastern Gulf tonight, as the high pressure north of the front propagates toward the eastern United States. Winds will become moderate northeast behind this front through tonight over the northern Gulf. The front will have shifted east of the Gulf basin by late Friday as the high moves over the western Atlantic. A ridge axis will extend from the high, across the Florida Panhandle, to the southwestern Gulf by late Friday and will remain in tact there through the upcoming weekend. This ridge pattern will support moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas 4 to 6 ft across most of the offshore waters of the basin Friday night through Sunday night. The ridge axis will then become oriented east to west across the western Atlantic to northern Florida on Monday which will help to increase easterly winds to 20 to 25 kt across the southeastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure north of the region will shift eastward through Sunday. Winds and seas in the west-central Caribbean will continue to diminish slightly further tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. However, fresh to strong trades and rough seas to 10 to 12 ft will continue in the tropical north Atlantic several more days as high pressure builds over the central Atlantic behind a cold front off the east coast of the United States Friday and Saturday. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage the next two days, then becoming more persistent this weekend as the high pressure builds north of the region. Fresh to strong winds will also return to the south- central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will expand across the entire central and eastern Caribbean early next week as the high to the north builds eastward toward the central Atlantic. Near gale force winds will become possible north of the Colombia coast by Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Weak low pressure and a surface trough along the eastern Florida coast to western Cuba will dissipate through today. A stationary front extending from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will dissipate through tonight as high pressure to the north weakens. A cold front will cross the northwestern waters starting tonight and will rapidly move eastward over the northern zones through Friday night as high pressure builds rapidly eastward across the eastern Unites States. This high will cross waters north of the area Friday night and Saturday which will bring an increase of northeast to east winds to 20 to 25 kt across the northeastern zones with seas building to 8 to 9 ft. Northeast trades will also increase to 15 to 20 kt east of the Bahamas which will build seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected during this time frame between the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This area of high pressure will move over the central Atlantic late this weekend which will allow wind and seas to decrease over the forecast zones. Another area of high pressure building north of the area early next week will once again increase east to northeast winds to fresh to strong over the southern zones, along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft south of 28N, outside of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.