000 AGXX40 KNHC 211715 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 PM EST WED DEC 21 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A stationary front extending west from south Florida to the central Gulf and south to the Bay of Campeche is expected to dissipate by late tonight, leaving a remnant trough in the southwest gulf that will linger in the area through Friday. On Thursday, a weak cold front will move in the northern Gulf, then stall and dissipate through Friday. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast return flow will develop Friday and persist through this weekend, with seas gradually building by about 2 ft, becoming 4-6 ft across the majority of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure north of the region will shift eastward Thursday through Sunday. Winds and seas in the west-central Caribbean will continue to diminish tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. However, fresh to strong trades and rough seas to 10 to 11 ft will continue in the tropical north Atlantic several more days as high pressure builds over the central Atlantic behind a cold front off the east coast of the United States later in the week. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage the two days. Fresh to strong winds return to the south-central Caribbean this weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. Visual satellite imagery and Doppler radar show an unusual low- level feature between Palm Beach and Bimini today, a meso-low spinning south of a stationary front that extends from 31N72W to south-central Florida. Marine interests transiting the straits between south Florida and the Bahamas may experience a sudden unexpected change in wind direction, scattered showers and gusty winds passing through this meso-low, which is expected to become diffuse tonight. Elsewhere, the stationary front will drift east of the Bahamas Thursday, then reinforcing cold air behind a developing front moving off the east coast Friday will allow the merged front to push eastward across the northern waters. The front will extend from 28N65W to 27N77W Saturday, then dissipate Sunday. High pressure building behind the front will strengthen trade winds in the northern half of the forecast area Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.