000 AGXX40 KNHC 201811 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 111 PM EST TUE DEC 20 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A strong high pressure ridge reaches from the mid-Atlantic states to northern Mexico, and a stationary front extends from 27N82W to 24N92W to 18N93W. A north-south oriented ridge also reaches from El Paso Texas to Tehuantepec Mexico. Scatterometer data shows 30 kt winds south of 22N west of the frontal boundary, and winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight as the both the front and the ridge over Mexico weaken. The stationary front will dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Another cold front will enter the northern gulf Thursday morning, then become stationary from central Florida to southern Texas Friday. High pressure behind the front will quickly shift eastward, allowing southerly return flow to develop over the western gulf this weekend. Models are in good agreement. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. High pressure north-northeast of the region will shift eastward through Friday. Low pressure will persist over northern Colombia through the weekend. Expect winds and seas in the western and central Caribbean to diminish through Wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes. However, fresh to strong trades and rough seas to 10-11 ft will continue in tropical north Atlantic for several more days as high pressure builds over the central Atlantic behind a cold front pushing off the east coast of the U.S later in the week. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue through the Windward Passage overnight, then diminish Wednesday. Models in agreement. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model blend. High confidence. A cold front from 31N76W to central Florida will shift slowly eastward and dissipate through Wednesday night. Another cold front will move into the northern waters Friday. Strong high pressure building behind the front over the southeastern U.S. will shift rapidly eastward, which will allow the front to extend from 30N65W Friday night, then become stationary along 28N west of 65W on Saturday as the flow becomes oriented east-west. Fresh trade winds will continue south of 22N east of the Bahamas through Saturday. Expect fresh to strong northeast winds to persist south of 22N west of the Bahamas including approaches to the Windward Passage through Wednesday morning, then diminish slowly through Friday as the pressure pattern breaks down. Models are in good agreement. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.