000 AGXX40 KNHC 191849 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EST MON DEC 19 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. Medium to high confidence. A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from the big bend of Florida to 24N93w then south to 18N94W. Scatterometer data at 1535 UTC showed 35 to 40 kt northwest winds south of 22N west of the front. Max seas are expected to be 15-17 ft in this area. Gale conditions will persist in the zone GMZ023 through Tuesday morning, and GFS model guidance shows 35 kt winds spilling into extreme SW part of zone GMZ025 in the Bay of Campeche tonight. Conditions will improve across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday as the front dissipates. Another cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf by early Thursday and extend across the northern and western portions of the basin through Friday. Gale force winds were expected near the Mexican coast with this front, but the last few model runs have trended downward, and GFS no longer indicates gales are likely. Models are in relatively good agreement with this scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. Medium to high confidence. The pressure gradient from high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia is enhancing trades in the central Caribbean. Scatterometer data last night did not show gales near the coast of Colombia, but the pass did not completely cover the area, so some uncertainty exists whether gales occurred overnight, and if gales will occur tonight as forecast. Regardless expect winds in excess of 30 kt in this area during nocturnal max. The surface high northeast of the area is shifting eastward across the central Atlantic today, with a tight pressure gradient in the tropical Atlantic. Expect strong trade winds to persist south of 23N through early Tuesday, then diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as the high moves away, with seas across the basin slowly subsiding. Enhanced NE winds in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba will diminish as well by Wednesday. High pressure building north of the area Thursday through Saturday will strengthen trade winds later in the week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A slow moving cold front across northeast Florida will push into the far NW waters tonight, then stall and weaken from 31N78W to central Florida Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. Winds and seas are diminishing across the forecast area as high pressure in the central Atlantic shifts farther eastward. Scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds south of 23N east of the Bahamas. Winds and seas will continue to subside through Wednesday as high pressure moves away from the area. High pressure in the central Atlantic will shift eastward through Tuesday, with a narrow ridge remaining along 30N through Wednesday. This will support moderate to fresh easterlies south of 27N and fresh to strong trades near the southern Bahamas including the Windward Passage through Tuesday night. A cold front will move through northern Florida reaching the northwest portion of the area today, then stall and weaken from 31N78W to central Florida Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Tue. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.