000 AGXX40 KNHC 190721 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 221 AM EST MON DEC 19 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 30N85W to 18N94W. This front will and gradually weaken across the basin though early next week. Scatterometer data at 0300 UTC depicted 40 kt northerly winds across the Bay of Campeche. Seas are expected to build to 14-16 ft south of 25N behind the front. Conditions will improve across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday, as the front dissipates. Another cold front is expected to approach the Texas coast by late Wednesday/Thursday. This front will reach the NW Gulf by early Thursday extending across the western portion of the basin through Friday. Gale force winds are expected once again near the Mexican coast west of the front. Models continue to be in good agreement with this scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. The pressure gradient generated by the strong high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia is enhancing trade winds in the central Caribbean. This synoptic pattern will continue through Tuesday, which will allow winds to reach gale force during the nocturnal-early morning peak through Tuesday in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. The surface high northeast of the area will shift eastward into the west-central Atlantic today, tightening the pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 23N during this period, with seas building to 10-12 ft in the tropical North Atlantic, and 8-10 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean. Conditions will moderate across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure in the central Atlantic will shift eastward through Tuesday, with a narrow ridge remaining along 30N through Wednesday. This will support moderate to fresh easterlies south of 27N and fresh to strong trades near the southern Bahamas including the Windward Passage through Tuesday night. A cold front will move through northern Florida reaching the northwest portion of the area today, then stall and weaken from 31N78W to central Florida Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today into today. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today into Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster ERA. National Hurricane Center.