000 AGXX40 KNHC 181843 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A strong cold front reaches across the NW gulf from New Orleans to Tampico Mexico. It will extend from the big bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico tonight, then stall from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche Monday, and gradually weaken across the basin though Wednesday. Scatterometer data at 1600 UTC showed 40 kt northerly winds along the Tampico coast. Seas will rapidly build to 14-18 ft south of 25N behind the front this evening. Conditions will improve across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday, as the front dissipates and yet another cold front approaches the Texas coast. The next front will reach the NW gulf early Thursday and also race southward in the western gulf through Friday, with gales likely again near the Mexican coast. Models continue to be in good agreement with this scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. The pressure gradient generated by the strong high pressure in the central Atlantic and a stationary low over northern Colombia is enhancing trade winds in the central Caribbean. This synoptic pattern is not likely to change significantly through Tuesday, which will allow winds to reach gale force during the nocturnal- early morning peak through Tuesday in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Model guidance indicates winds will remain greater than 30 kt in the area during daytime hours Monday, so will allow gale warning to continue uninterrupted from tonight through early Tuesday instead of indicating a significant break in this high wind event. The high northeast of the area will shift eastward into the west-central Atlantic through Monday, tightening the pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 23N during this period, with seas building to 10-12 ft in the tropical North Atlantic, and 8-10 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean by Monday. Conditions will moderate across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are in good agreement with this scenario. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure in the central Atlantic will shift eastward through Tuesday, with a narrow ridge remaining along 30N through Wednesday. This will support moderate to fresh easterlies south of 27N and fresh to strong trades near the southern Bahamas including the Windward Passage through Tuesday night. A cold front moving through northern Florida will reach the northwest portion of the area Monday, then stall and weaken from 31N78W to central Florida Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. Models are in good agreement. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight into Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.