000 AGXX40 KNHC 180733 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 233 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A ridge over the U.S. gulf coast is weakening as high pressure in the Atlantic slides eastward. Surface obs and scatterometer data depict fresh southerly winds in the western gulf while moderate to fresh southeast winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the western Gulf, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. A strong cold front currently over central Texas will reach the northwest Gulf this morning. Model guidance indicates winds will rapidly increase to gale force behind the front during the morning hours affecting this area during the morning hours. These winds will spread south across the western Gulf through most of the day. The front will extend from Louisiana to the Texas/Mexico border today, from the the Big Bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico by tonight, and from central Florida to Bay of Campeche Monday, then become stationary and weaken east of 90W Tuesday. Expect near-gale to gale force winds south of 26N west of the front from today through Tuesday, with max seas rapidly building to 15-18 ft south of 22N west of 95W tonight and Monday. Conditions will significantly improve across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Models continue to be in good agreement with this scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. The pressure gradient generated by the strong high pressure in the Atlantic and a stationary low over northern Colombia is enhancing the trade winds in the central Caribbean. This synoptic pattern is not likely to change significantly through Monday, which will allow for the trades to reach gale-force strength during the nocturnal-early morning peaks through Tuesday over the south-central Caribbean. The high pressure northeast of the area will shift eastward into the west-central Atlantic through Monday, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 22N during this period, with seas steadily building over the tropical North Atlantic, which will expand westward reaching the central and eastern Caribbean by Monday. Conditions will moderate across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are in good agreement with this scenario. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1038 mb high located northeast of the area. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N42W to 25N66W. A fresh to strong anticyclonic flow prevails across most of the area except south of 24N where scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds. The surface high will shift eastward today and enhance trade winds in far southeastern waters, while winds and seas in northwest waters diminish. Expect strong trades to develop south of 22N this weekend, allowing seas to steadily build east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward and Mona Passages. A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida tonight, then weaken and stall from 31N78W to central Florida by Monday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning today. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Gale Warning Mon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster ERA. National Hurricane Center.