000 AGXX40 KNHC 171800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A ridge over the U.S. gulf coast is weakening as high pressure in the Atlantic slides eastward. Surface obs and scatterometer data show fresh southerly winds in the western gulf, and moderate to fresh south to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the western gulf, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. A strong cold front over northern Texas will reach the gulf coast early Sunday. Model guidance indicates winds will rapidly increase to gale force behind the front Sunday morning, and remain 25-35 kt north of the front most of the day. The front will extend from Louisiana to the Texas/Mexico border Sunday, from the big bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico Sunday night, and from central Florida to Bay of Campeche Monday, then become stationary and weaken east of 90W Tuesday. Expect near-gale to gale force winds south of 26N west of the front Sunday through Tuesday, with max seas rapidly building to 15-18 ft south of 22N west of 95W Sunday night and Monday. Conditions will significantly improve across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are in good agreement with this scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. The pressure gradient generated by the strong high pressure in the Atlantic and a stationary low over northern Colombia is enhancing trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. The synoptic pattern is not likely to change significantly through Monday, which will allow trades to approach gale-force during peak nocturnal forcing near the Colombia coast through Tuesday. Model guidance indicates gale conditions are likely Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure northeast of the area will shift eastward into the west- central Atlantic through Monday, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 22N during this period, with seas steadily building over the tropical North Atlantic, which will expand westward to encompass the entire central and eastern Caribbean by Monday. Conditions will moderate across the basin Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are in good agreement with this scenario. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A weakening stationary front extends along 24N to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong northeast winds are evident within 90 to 120 nm north of the frontal boundary on scatterometer data. Strong southerly winds are also depicted on ASCAT north of 28N west of 75W on the southwest periphery of high pressure in the central Atlantic centered near 36N62W. The high will shift eastward through Sunday and enhance trade winds in far southeastern waters, while winds and seas in northwest waters diminish. Expect strong trades to develop south of 22N this weekend, allowing seas to steadily build east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward and Mona Passages. A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida Sunday night, then weaken and stall from 31N78W to central Florida by Monday night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Sun. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun into Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun into Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.