000 AGXX40 KNHC 170739 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 239 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard extends a ridge southwestward to central Mexico. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh southerly winds north of 21N and west of 90W, while moderate to fresh east winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 2-4 ft, except 4-6 ft in the northwest Gulf. Southerly winds will increase and expand into the central Gulf today ahead of a strong cold front, which will reach the Texas coast by early Sunday. Model guidance indicates winds will rapidly increase to gale force behind the front Sunday morning, and remain 25-35 kt north of the front through Monday affecting the northwestern Gulf waters west of 95W. The front will extend from central Louisiana to Brownsville Texas on Sunday, from big bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico by Sunday night, and from central Florida to Bay of Campeche on Monday, then becoming stationary and weaken east of 90W on Tuesday. Near-gale to gale force winds are expected south of 26N and west of the front through Tuesday, with maximum seas rapidly building to 15-18 ft south of 22N west of 95W Sunday night and Monday. Models are in good agreement with this scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. The pressure gradient generated by the strong high pressure north of the area and a stationary low over northern Colombia is enhancing trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This synoptic pattern is not likely change significantly through the weekend, which will allow trades to approach gale-force during peak nocturnal forcing near the Colombia coast through Tuesday. Model guidance indicates highest probability for gales is from Sunday night into early Monday. The high pressure north of the area will shift eastward into the west-central Atlantic through the weekend tightening the pressure gradient across the region. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 22N during this period, with seas steadily building over the tropical North Atlantic then expand westward into the central and eastern Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A stationary front extends across the central Bahamas from 27N60W to north-central Cuba. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the front. A fresh anticyclonic flow prevails across the western Atlantic. Expect for strong trade winds to develop south of 22N this weekend allowing seas to steadily build east of the Bahamas. Strong winds also expected in the Windward and Mona Passages. Another cold front will be moving off the coast of NE Florida Sunday night. This front will weaken and stall from 31N78W to Daytona Beach by early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Sun. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Tue. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster ERA. National Hurricane Center.