000 AGXX40 KNHC 161842 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard extends a ridge southwestward to central Mexico. Scatterometer data today shows moderate to fresh southerly winds north of 22N in the western gulf, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 2-4 ft, except 4-5 ft in the northwest gulf. Southerly winds will increase and expand into the central gulf tonight through Saturday night ahead of a strong cold front, which will reach the Texas coast early Sunday. Model guidance indicates winds will rapidly increase to gale force behind the front Sunday morning, and remain 25-35 kt north of the front most of Sunday. The front will extend from central Louisiana to Brownsville Texas Sunday, from big bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico Sunday night, and from central Florida to Bay of Campeche Monday, then become stationary and weaken east of 90W Tuesday. Expect near-gale to gale force winds south of 26N west of the front Sunday through Tuesday, with max seas rapidly building to 15-18 ft south of 22N west of 95W Sunday night and Monday. Models are in good agreement. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. Strong high pressure north of the area and a stationary low over northern Colombia is enhancing trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data at 1500 UTC showed 30 kt winds along the northern coast of Colombia. The synoptic pattern is not likely change significantly through the weekend, which will allow trades to approach gale force during peak nocturnal forcing near the Colombia coast through Tuesday. Model guidance indicates highest probability for gales is Sunday night into early Monday. Elsewhere strong high pressure north of the area will shift eastward into the west-central Atlantic, and tighten the latitudinal pressure gradient across the region. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 22N this weekend, and allow seas to steadily build over the tropical North Atlantic then expand westward into the central and eastern Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS blend. High confidence. A cold front extends across the central Bahamas from 26N65W to north-central Cuba. The front will stall and become stationary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas tonight, with east-northeast winds increasing north of the frontal boundary to around 25 kt as strong high pressure builds across the region behind the front. Expect strong trade winds to develop south of 22N this weekend, and allow seas to steadily build east of the Bahamas, with strong winds also expected in the Windward and Mona Passages. Another cold front moving off the coast of NE Florida Sunday night will weaken and stall from 31N78W to Daytona Beach Monday and Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Sun. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sun. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.