000 AGXX40 KNHC 160801 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 301 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. The 00Z surface analysis consists of a frontal system analyzed as a stationary front from 22N97W to 24N88W then as a cold front from that point to the Florida Straits near 25N80W. The stationary front is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. Mostly moderate northerly flow with some pockets of fresh flow will follow in behind the front during this period of time. A surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front and shift eastward through Friday night. The winds will veer around to an east to southeast direction in the central and eastern gulf, while southerly winds will prevail in the western Gulf where they increase to the fresh to locally strong category on Saturday. Seas behind the front are expected to build to the range of 3-5 ft, except for higher seas of around 6-8 ft in the western Gulf on Saturday. The strong return flow in the western Gulf will occur ahead of the next cold front that will approach the area. The cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico waters by early Sunday. Gale-force winds are forecast behind this front affecting the western Gulf waters west of 95W. The front is forecast to move quickly and to reach from the Fl panhandle to the southwest Gulf on Sunday night, and become stationary from north/central Fl to the Bay of Campeche by late Monday. Will highlight possible gale conditions for Sunday in zone GMZ017, and for zone GMZ023 for Sunday afternoon through Monday. GMZ23 will continue with gale-force winds through late Tuesday. It may be necessary to include zone GMZ011 for frequent gusts to gale force early on Sunday with the next forecast. Seas are expected to build to around 12 ft with these conditions in the far western part of zone GMZ017, and to 13-17 ft in the far southwest part of zone GMZ023 on Monday through Tuesday. Model guidance suggests that these seas will subside by late Tuesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds from 70W eastward, fresh-to-strong from 10N to 14N between 74W and 78W off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are around SE Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the area. The highest sea heights are reported off the coast of Colombia ranging between 9 to 11 ft. The pressure gradient across the area will weaken a bit through the next 24 hours before getting stronger by this weekend into early next week supporting fresh to strong trades mainly east of 80W, and in the tropical north Atlantic Ocean zones. Model guidance suggest seas will build to 11 across most of the area, and to maximum of 12 to 14 ft in the south-central portion of the Caribbean in zone AMZ031. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. A pair of cold fronts are moving across the area with stronger one extending from 25N80W to 30N68W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are behind this front while seas of 2 to 3 ft are depicted across the Bahama islands chain. High pressure in the far eastern waters is sliding eastward. The front is expected to move across the northern and central waters and reach the southern waters on Friday where it will become stationary from 25N65W to the Straits of Fl by Friday evening. The large area of high pressure will develop in its wake and will encompass the entire basin. The associated tight pressure gradient between the high and the front will induce fresh to strong northerly flow over much of the northern and central waters through the next 24 hours. A swath of strong northeast winds with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range are expected from 24N to 26N between 71W and the Bahamas Friday through Saturday afternoon, and then become confined to the far southern waters east of 75W Saturday evening through Monday. Similar winds are expected through the Windward Passage and adjacent waters. The front is forecast to be preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds, and seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Seas will subside in zones AMZ113 and AMZ115 on Monday, but will be slow in subsiding in the waters east of the Bahamas south of 26N by Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Tue. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster ERA. National Hurricane Center.