000 AGXX40 KNHC 141900 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence, except medium confidence western gulf zones Sunday and Sunday night. A cold front over the northern Gulf will continue to progress southeastward through Thursday, reaching from the southeastern Gulf and Florida Straits to northeastern Mexico by late Thursday afternoon. High pressure north of the front will be progressive and is forecast to move quickly eastward from the central plains tonight, reaching the eastern United States coast by Friday afternoon. This will result in the cold advection supporting the front to diminish rapidly across the western Gulf late Thursday and the eastern Gulf by Friday afternoon. Therefore the front will stall through Thursday and dissipate from west to east beginning late Thursday, completely dissipating across the southeastern basin by Friday night. Friday through Saturday, a ridge axis will setup from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf supporting fresh to strong return flow over the western Gulf with seas building to 4 to 7 ft, the highest over the northwestern Gulf. Moderate return flow is forecast over the remainder of the Gulf during this time frame. The next cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf late Saturday night. Strong high pressure to the north of this front may potentially support winds to gale force over portions of the western Gulf Sunday into Sunday night, as the cold front moves southeastward to the central Gulf. However, there remains some uncertainty as to the timing and strength of this cold front. In particular, the latest model runs keep the center of the high well north of the basin, tracking over the Ohio Valley. This northward track may not support the necessary strength of ridging building southward over the interior of Mexico that would yield the classic western Gulf gale. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure to the north of the region that has been helping to support the recent fresh to strong winds over the central and eastern Caribbean is shifting eastward today. This is resulting in a relaxing of the trades across most of the Caribbean basin to moderate to fresh. The exception will continue to be within a couple hundred miles north of the Colombia and northwest Venezuela coasts, where the combination of lower pressures south of the region and nocturnal tightening of the pressure gradient will support pulsing of strong winds overnight into each morning. Seas over this area will range generally between 8 and 10 ft. Another area of high pressure will build over the western Atlantic over the weekend. This will help to tighten the pressure gradient over the central and Eastern Caribbean and the Windward Passage leading to fresh to strong trades across the area. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft over most of the open waters of the central and eastern Caribbean this weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure is shifting east of the region today with a lingering ridge axis along 27N to the northern Bahamas. A pre- frontal trough is developing to the northeast of the Bahamas as a cold front approaches the northern zones. Fresh to strong southwesterly flow will develop by this evening between the pre- frontal trough and the cold front north of 30N, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft. This area of stronger winds will expand eastward to around 50W Thursday ahead of the cold front as it extends from around 31N70W to south Florida by Thursday afternoon. The front will become stationary from around 25N65W to central Cuba Friday morning and dissipate through Friday night. High pressure building over the eastern united States and western Atlantic behind the front will bring an increase in northeasterly winds to 20 to 25 kt east of the Bahamas to the southeastern waters over the weekend with seas of 8 to 10 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Conditions Possible Sun. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Conditions Possible Sun night into Mon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.