000 AGXX40 KNHC 131901 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence then medium confidence by Sunday. Weak 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf, supporting light to moderate flow across the basin with 1 to 3 ft seas. The high pressure will shift east tonight ahead of a cold front entering the far northwest Gulf. The front will reach from Panama City Florida to south Texas early Wednesday, from near Tampa Florida to the mouth of the Rio Grande by early Thursday, then stall from the Florida Keys to south Texas by early Friday before becoming diffuse Saturday. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will follow the front over the northwest Gulf by Thursday. The pressure gradient will tighten over the northwest Gulf by late Friday between deepening low pressure over the central Rockies and high pressure building over the mid Atlantic coast. The official forecast favors slightly stronger ECMWF over GFS showing fresh to strong southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf by late Saturday given the pattern. Global model guidance is in pretty good agreement showing a stronger cold front moving off the Texas coast by early Sunday. There is starting to be more of consensus on the potential for gale conditions over the western Gulf Sunday and Sunday night. Given the progressive pattern however confidence is not high yet the colder and drier air will funnel along the coast of Mexico at gale force behind the front and adjustments may be needed to the forecast in time. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure north of the area is maintaining fresh to strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean especially off the coast of northeast Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds continue elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for 8 to 10 ft in east swell in the tropical Atlantic west of 55W. A few showers and thunderstorm are ongoing from eastern Panama to southeast Nicaragua. The strong trade winds and associated seas will continue to diminish slightly through mid week across the region as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. A new area of high pressure will build north of the region late in the week, enhancing trade wind flow once again and bringing strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage by Friday night into Sunday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 33N44W to east central Florida, supporting light to moderate winds are noted across the region. The ridge will shift east later today ahead of a cold front approaching the waters off northeast Florida. The front will stall along roughly 30N then drift north again tonight. A reinforcing airmass will build through the Carolinas by mid week, pushing the frontal boundary south again by early Thursday. The front will reach from Bermuda to east central Florida by late Thursday, and stall form 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Friday. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front Friday and Saturday, with strong southeast return flow offshore of northeast Florida by late Saturday with seas to 9 ft, diminishing through Sunday as weak cold front moves off the coast of northeast Florida. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist south of 22N from late Saturday to Sunday, with seas 10 to 12 ft seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.