000 AGXX40 KNHC 121835 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weak ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Early morning observations from the northwest Gulf indicated areas of fog reducing visibilities to 5 to 6 nm. A weak cold front moving into the coastal area of Texas will drift into the far northwest Gulf later today and stall, and may serve as the focus for additional areas of fog over the offshore waters of the northwest Gulf Tuesday morning before the front lifts northward again. The front will move southeast again by late Tuesday, move into the northern Gulf and briefly stall from the Florida Big Bend area to near the mouth of the Rio Grande by Wednesday morning. A reinforcing cold airmass will move into the Gulf later on Wednesday, pushing the front farther south. The overall pattern will remain fairly zonal through Thursday, and the front will stall from South Florida to northeast Mexico by the end of the week. Generally 2 to 4 ft seas will persist through mid week, building to 4 to 6 ft over the northern Gulf behind the front late in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Fresh to strong trade winds persist across from the tropical north Atlantic west of 55W and through the eastern and central Caribbean, supported by strong high pressure centered northeast of the area. Buoy observations and a 10 UTC altimeter pass indicated 9 to 11 ft seas over most of the central Caribbean, with seas to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Trade wind convergence is enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean, from the coast of eastern Panama to southern Nicaragua. This convection is also related to a weak low pressure area which moved westward across southern Nicaragua last night. The strong trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly through mid week across the region as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. A new area of high pressure will build north of the region late in the week, enhancing trade wind flow once again and bringing strong northeast winds through the Windward Passage by Friday night into Saturday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. 1033 mb high pressure is centered northeast of Bermuda near 34N58W. This is supporting fresh to strong trade wind flow mainly south of 25N and from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico. A weak short wave trough aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Stream north of Grand Bahama and east of northeast Florida. Fresh southerly return flow is also noted in this area between the high pressure east of Bermuda and lower pressure over the southeastern United States. Seas are are generally 8 to 9 ft south of 27N and east of the Bahamas in a combination of wind waves due to trade winds and easterly swell. Trade winds and associated seas will diminish through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will briefly move south of 32N, before lifting northward again by late Tuesday. A reinforcing airmass will build through the Carolinas by mid week, pushing the frontal boundary south again by early Thursday. The front will reach from 28N65W to South Florida by early Friday, and from 22N65W to the Windward Passage and northern Haiti Saturday. This is a colder and drier airmass, and will bring strong northerly winds and building seas to the region Friday and Saturday, with 8 to 13 ft seas possible east of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.