000 AGXX40 KNHC 110759 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 259 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The 06Z surface analysis has a statioanry front draped from northwest Cuba southwest to inland the northern Yucatan peninsula. A trough extends from 24N96W southeast to 18N93W. Strong high pressure ridging is sliding eastward over the northern gulf east of 93W. The tight pressure gradient along the coast of Mexico south of 21N and within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz is relaxing. Northwest to north winds there have diminished to 20-25 kt with seas in the 9-11 ft range as depicted in the 0318Z Ascat pass. This Ascat pass also showed a swath of fresh to strong northeast winds roughly from 22N to 25N east of 93W, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are 8-9 ft per recent altimeter data, except for higher seas of 9-10 ft in the Straits of Florida where counter northeast flow to the loop current is helping to maintain these seas. Seas elsewhere are in the range of 4-7 ft, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft in the far northern waters. Water vapor imagery continues shows ample upper-level moisture streaming eastward across much of the southern portion of central gulf, and the southeast part of the eastern gulf in broad upper level southwest flow. Upper-level jet stream energy riding along this flow is helping to trigger off scattered showers across these area. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are confined to the Bay of Campeche. The strong high pressure will continue to shift eastward and weaken through early on Monday. A weaker gradient will set up over the area through the next few days allowing for seas to considerably subside to 2-3 ft throughout by late MOnday, except for 3-5 ft seas in the approach to the Yucatan channel, and in the Yucatan channel. The 3-5 ft seas then subside to 2-3 ft Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the northern and eastern gulf Wednesday through Thursday followed by moderate to fresh northerly flow. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The 0136 Ascat pass showed fresh northeast winds between 67W and 79W and also south of 16N between 79W and 82W. to the south of Hispaniola and Jamaica, and also through the windward passage where a ship is currently reporting similar winds. A small pocket of strong northeast to east winds is along the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the central Caribbean, except for 10-12 ft within 90 nm of coast of Colombia. Both buoy and Ascat data show moderate to fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere, with seas in the 5-7 ft range, except for 3 to 4 ft west of 79W and higher seas of 5- 6 ft in the windward passage. A well-defined surface trough, resembling an easterly wave, is analyzed at 06Z along 78W from the coast of Panama north to 17N. It is moving west at 10-15 kt. A tight gradient in the wake of the trough is helping to contribute to the aforementioned fresh northeast winds over the central Caribbean. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm east of the trough south of 15N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 17N between 74W and 83W. The surface trough will across the western Caribbean sea through Monday night before moving inland central America. A statioanry extending from the northern Yucatan peninsula northeastward to western Cuba will dissipate this afternoon as strong high pressure behind it continues to slide eastward. The fresh northeast winds in the central Caribbean will become mostly strong, and expand in coverage through Monday night, then diminish on Tuesday. Strong northeast to east trades are expected to materialize across the tropical north Atlantic zone AMZ127 Sunday night through most of Tuesday. Combined seas up to 12 ft in zone AMZ031 will continue through Monday before subsiding thereafter. Seas are forecast to build to 8-10 ft in the tropical north Atlantic zone Monday and Monday night before subsiding some on Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure is surging eastward from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic behind a slow moving cold front currently extending from near 31N64W to 28N70W to 26N76W where it becomes stationary to the straits of Florida and to along northwest Cuba. The front will move eastward and reach to roughly along 26N by this evening, while the stationary portion becomes diffuse. The cold front portion will will then begin to dissipate Sunday through late Sunday night. The strong high pressure behind the front will then shift eastward to the eastern part of the basin by Tuesday in response to a weak cold front that approaches the southeast U.S. Strong northeast winds south of the ridge, and to the north of the front will encompass the area from 24N to 27N with seas in the 6-9 ft range through the northern Bahamas by early this evening. As the high pressure shifts eastward, these conditions will expand to much of the area south of 28N through Sunday night, then shrink in coverage through Tuesday as the pressure gradient slackens. Seas to 8 ft will persist through Monday east of the Bahamas, then be confined to zone AMZ127 on Tuesday as seas subside to 4-5 ft elsewhere east of the Bahamas, and to 2-3 ft southwest of the Bahamas. The previously mentioned cold front is expected to brush the far northern waters Monday through Tuesday night. Presently, model guidance highlights mainly fresh south to southwest winds ahead of this front, and gentle to moderate west to northwest winds behind it becoming light and variable Tuesday night and Wednesday. Seas of 5-7 ft are expected east of the front within the fresh to south to southwest winds, and 4-5 ft behind the front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.