000 AGXX40 KNHC 101829 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure centered north of the basin with a ridge axis extending southward over inland eastern Mexico will continue to support a gale south of 21N west of 95W until 0000 UTC Sunday. Fresh to strong northeast winds will also continue south of 26N through much of tonight, as a stationary front remains from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. On Sunday the strong winds will become confined to the southwest and southeast corners of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits as the stationary front dissipates and the high to the north slides east. The highest seas Sunday will be over the southwest Gulf, and also over the Florida Straits, where the northeast winds will interact with the Gulf Stream current to enhance wave heights. The high will reach the western Atlantic Sunday with a ridge axis becoming setup across northern Florida by Monday. This will result in the development of a weak return flow pattern over the Gulf basin from Sunday night through Tuesday night with seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft on Monday, lasting through Wednesday. Latest model guidance then brings a cold front to the northern Gulf late Wednesday or early Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front extending from western Cuba to just north of Cozumel, Mexico will linger over the northwestern Caribbean tonight, weakening through the day Sunday. Fresh to strong winds over the Yucatan Channel will diminish tonight as the high to the north slides east. The pressure gradient between the high north of the basin and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean and Colombia will support fresh to strong trades over most of the Caribbean south of 18N the next several days. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Sunday night due to a slight tightening pressure gradient due to nocturnal fluctuations. The high will become centered over the central Atlantic Sunday night through Monday night which will help to expand the strong trade winds across the eastern Caribbean as well as the Atlantic forecast waters. The high will slide even farther east through mid week, helping to somewhat relax the trades over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic forecast waters. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front from around 27N65W to the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits will remain in tact through tonight and then dissipate through the day Sunday. Strong high pressure north of the front will support an expanding area of fresh to strong winds north of the front and south of 28N through tonight. The stronger winds will then shift to the east and southeast into Monday as the high to the north also shifts eastward toward the central Atlantic. The area of strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater will begin to diminish Tuesday as the high continues eastward toward the eastern Atlantic. A cold front will enter the far northwest waters Wednesday night and clip the northern zones through Thursday. Current model consensus keeps the strong winds and seas greater than 8 ft associated with this front north of the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.