000 AGXX40 KNHC 091851 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence then medium confidence next week. A cold front reaches from the Straits of Florida to 18.5N94W to just east of Coatzacoalcos Mexico. A scatterometer pass from 1540 UTC indicated a large area of gale force winds along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Strong north to northeast winds are noted elsewhere west of 90W. Seas are estimated to be near 20 ft off the coast of Veracruz where the strongest winds are. Fresh northeast winds persist elsewhere with 6 to 9 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the southwest Gulf to the north of the frontal boundary. The gale force winds will persist through early Saturday off Veracruz then gradually diminish as well winds and seas across the basin through late Sunday as strong high pressure north of the front continues to move east. The front will become stationary from northwest Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to northeast Yucatan peninsula into early next week. The subtropical ridge settles along roughly 26N/27N early to mid next week. The global models are still showing some uncertainty with the timing of the arrival of the next front, although a consensus between them indicates a moderate cold front will move off the Texas coast late Wednesday night into early Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Fresh to strong trade winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms follow a surface trough/tropical wave reaching from Haiti to northeast Colombia, moving westward into the southwest Caribbean. Strong high pressure building north of the area behind a cold front stalling over the Yucatan Channel through Sunday will support a broad area of fresh to strong trade winds over mainly the central and southwest Caribbean through early next week. The strongest winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia during overnight hours. Strong winds will push through the Windward Passage tonight and Saturday night. Seas will reach up to 12 ft over portions of the southwest Caribbean from Saturday into Monday. Expect fresh to strong trades east of the Windward Islands by Sunday as the high pressure shifts east into the central Atlantic, spreading into the waters east of the Leeward Islands through mid week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front reaching from near Bermuda to southeast Florida will push south and stall along roughly 23N by late Saturday. Strong winds will follow over the northern Bahamas later today behind the front with 8 ft seas. The high pressure behind the front will shift east into the central Atlantic through early next week, supporting strong trades and 9 ft seas east of the northern and central Bahamas Sunday before winds veer southeast and diminish into Monday as the ridge shifts to the northeast of the region. Strong trades will develop near the approaches to the Windward Passage and north of Puerto Rico by Monday, before winds and seas diminish overall Tuesday through mid week. A weak front may approach the waters off northeast Florida by late Wednesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Sat. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.