000 AGXX40 KNHC 090800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence then medium confidence next week. The 06Z surface analysis shows the cold front extending from south Florida southwest to 25N86W and west to 25N90W to 24.5N93W, and south to inland Mexico near Veracruz. A dissipating front is just to the south of the cold front from the Straits of Florida to 24N87W and to near 22N93W. Very strong high pressure of 1042 mb is centered over the central U.S. with a ridge extending southward over eastern Texas and along the coast of Mexico behind the cold front. The associated pressure gradient is resulting in a quite an extensive area of strong to near gale force northeast winds with frequent gusts across much of the northwest and western portions of the central gulf, while sustained north winds of strong gale force intensity are observed west of the cold front in the southwest gulf zone (GMZ023) and in the western portion of zone GMZ017 per the 04Z Ascat pass. Ship with call sign "A8RHG" reported northeast winds of 42 kt near location 26N97W near 06Z with combined seas of 16 ft. NDFD wind and waveheights were adjusted upward a little for the overnight period and to 12Z Friday. Elsewhere across the gulf both buoys and the latest Ascat pass depict fresh to strong northeast winds north of the cold front and west of 84W, except for fresh northeast winds between the cold front and dissipating stationary front and lighter winds from the north and northeast in the gentle to moderate range east of the cold front in the eastern Bay of Campeche and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds between the dissipating stationary front and the Yucatan peninsula and also the Yucatan channel. Seas range from 10 to 17 ft in the far western gulf and southwest gulf sections to 8 to 12 ft elsewhere north of 24N west of 87W. Seas over the remainder of the gulf are in the 5 to 8 ft range except for lower seas of 4 to 6 ft east of 84W. Water vapor imagery shows ample upper level moisture streaming eastward across much of the central and eastern gulf in a broad upper level flow pattern across the region. The combination of this flow and convergent surface winds is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the central gulf zones GMZ019, GMZ015, GMZ021 and in portions of zone GMZ023 and GMZ025. This activity will continuue into most of the weekend. Reinforcing cold air moving southward into coastal Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley will maintain the northwest to north winds to the gale force range over the west central and southwest portions of the Gulf near the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz through this afternoon, then along and Veracruz through Saturday afternoon as the aforementioned strong high shifts eastward and weakens. Northeast to east winds will be mainly in the strong to near gale force range outside the gale force wind areas tonight across much of the central and west-central gulf zones with fresh to strong northeast winds elsewhere. On Saturday, winds diminish to fresh to strong over much of the central gulf and become fresh northeast to east elsewhere except for the gale force winds near Veracruz. These winds then diminish to strong on Saturday night. Seas are forecast to peak up to 20 ft in the southwest gulf behind the front tonight, then subside to 14 ft on Saturday, to 12 ft Saturday night and to 9 ft late Saturday night before subsiding further to 5 to 6 ft by Sunday afternoon. Seas elsewhere will subside to 4 to 6 ft by Sunday, and to 2 to 3 ft Monday night and Tuesday. For the day 5 time frame (Tuesday) models are not in agreement with the possibility of the next cold front to move into the northern gulf. For time being will headline this next front as approaching the gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. The 0218 Ascat pass showed a swath of mostly northeast winds to the south of Hispaniola and southwest of Puerto Rico south to near 13N. Seas remain in the 7 to 9 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Both buoy and Ascat data show moderate to fresh northeast to east elsewhere east of 79W, and gentle to moderate winds northeast winds west of 79W. Seas within these areas are in the 6 to 8 ft range, except for 4 to 5 ft west of 79W and lower seas of 2 to 3 ft north 18N west of Jamaica. A well-defined surface trough, resembling an easterly wave is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean near 69W as of 06Z moving west at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the trough. This activity is being further enhanced by a small upper-level low just to its west at 16N71W. A cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel and far northwest portions of the Caribbean by Saturday. Building high pressure behind the front north of the area will support an expanded area of strong trades over the most of the eastern and central Caribbean. Winds through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will increase briefly late Saturday as well. Models still in pretty good agreement that the high pressure will slide east, and reach from the central Atlantic through the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh trades across the tropical north Atlantic through the central Caribbean early next week, with strong trades east of the Leeward Islands by Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure is surging eastward from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic behind a cold front currently extending from 31N73W to south Florida. The front will move eastward and reach to roughly along 25N by Sunday, then stall near 22N by early next week while undergoes dissipation. The strong high pressure will build across the basin through Sunday, then shift eastward to the eastern part of the basin by Tuesday in response to a weak cold front that approaches the southeast U.S. Strong northeast winds south of the ridge and to the north of the front will encompass the area from 24N to 27N through the northern Bahamas by early Saturday evening. As the high pressure shifts eastward, these conditions will expand to much of the area south of 27N through Sunday night, then shrink in coverage through Tuesday as the pressure gradient slackens. Seas to 8 ft will persist through Monday east of the Bahamas, then be confined to zone AMZ127 on Tuesday as seas subside to 4 to 5 ft elsewhere east of the Bahamas, and to 2 to 3 ft southwest of the Bahamas. The previously mentioned cold front is expected to brush the far northern waters late Monday into Tuesday. Presently, model guidance highlights mainly fresh south to southwest winds ahead of this front, and gentle to moderate west to northwest winds behind it. Seas of 5 to 6 ft are expected to be associated with the front, but may be a bit higher if winds increase more than what the guidance indicates. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning early today. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning early today. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today into today. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning early today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning through Saturday afternoon. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.