000 AGXX40 KNHC 081924 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence then medium confidence next week. Strong winds over the northwest Gulf follow a cold front reaching from central Florida to 26N94W to near Tampico Mexico. A dissipating stationary front is farther south, reaching from the Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale force are noted over much of the far northwest Gulf as well. Convergent surface winds and moist overrunning southerly flow aloft across this southern boundary is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central and west central Gulf. Reinforcing cold air moving southward into coastal Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley will allowing winds to reach sustained gale force behind the front over the west central and southwest portions of the Gulf near the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz over the next couple of days. Winds and seas will diminish very slowly Saturday and Saturday night across the SW Gulf as the cold front sinks into the northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead, there is some uncertainty among global models regarding another possible front after mid week. Official forecast remains conservative, indicating a weak front entering the northern waters by early Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A 1427 UTC scatterometer pass indicated 20 to 25 kt winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas are likely 8 to 10 ft over the south central Caribbean as a result. Farther east, a well defined surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean along roughly 63W/64W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt, and supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Regional observations and the scatterometer pass indicate fresh to strong northeast winds from the Leeward Islands to the central coast of Venezuela. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades with sea to 8 ft persist over the tropical north Atlantic, mixed with northerly swell. A cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel and far northwest portions of the Caribbean by early Sunday. Building high pressure behind the front north of the area will support an expanded area of strong trades over the most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with near gale force winds during overnight hours off Colombia starting late Saturday as the surface trough shifts west of the area. Winds through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will increase briefly late Saturday as well. The high pressure will slide east and reach from the central Atlantic through the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh trades across the tropical north Atlantic through the central Caribbean early next week, with strong trades east of the Leeward Islands by Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Strong high pressure will build eastward from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through Saturday behind a cold front currently extending from 31N75W to central Florida. The front will move eastward but eventually will become oriented along 25N by Sunday, before stalling across roughly 22N by early next week and dissipating. Strong northeast winds south of the ridge and to the north of the front will encompass the area from 24N to 28N through the northern Bahamas by late Saturday, expanding to much of the area south of 27N through Saturday with seas to 8 ft persisting through Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning today and tonight. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.