000 AGXX40 KNHC 071936 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 236 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. medium-High confidence. A pair of stationary fronts cross the Gulf this afternoon. One reaches from southwest Florida to the southwest Gulf. The other reaches across the northern Gulf. Winds remain light overall with 2 to 4 ft seas. The pattern will change significantly by early Thursday as a reinforcement of very cold and dry air will punch into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will sweep southward across the Gulf through early Friday, bringing gale force winds down the coast of Mexico, and gusts to gale force over much of the offshore Gulf waters west of 90W. Strong to near gale force northeasterly winds are expected across much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front through Friday night, tapering off into the day Saturday, as the high weakens slightly and moves eastward towards the Carolinas. Marine guidance continues to suggest gale force winds in the 35-45 kt range and building seas of 16 ft with this event. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Fresh to strong trade winds persist across the south central Caribbean with 8 to 9 ft seas. Mainly fresh winds are noted across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the western Caribbean. High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the waters of the central Caribbean, especially north of the coast of Colombia through Thursday night. Late Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean with fresh to strong northeast winds in the wake of the front. As high pressure builds east over the western Atlantic this upcoming weekend, 20 to 25 kt northeast to east winds will spread across the majority of the Caribbean Sea, with 25 to 30 kt winds just north of the coast of Colombia. As a result, seas will build to 8 to 12 ft over a large portion of the central Caribbean Saturday night. These strong winds and large seas will likely persist through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front reaches from 31N70W to south Florida, will shift east ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida early Thursday. The stronger front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Friday, before slowing over the central Bahamas Saturday and stalling across the southern Bahamas Sunday. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the wake of this second cold front starting early on Friday. Strong high pressure north of this front will support a broad area of strong winds and building seas east of the Bahamas this weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 9-10 ft south of 27N east of the Bahamas late on Saturday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Thu night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Sat. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.