000 AGXX40 KNHC 061852 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front currently from the Florida panhandle to the southwestern Gulf will stall out from south Florida to the southwestern Gulf late tonight. Fresh to strong west winds are expected to continue behind the front north of 28N to about 91W through this evening. A squall line ahead of the front over the eastern gulf will continue into this evening as well, before dissipating. After a lull in activity later tonight through Wednesday evening, a strong cold front will emerge off the coast of Texas and Louisiana Thursday morning. This front will cross the Gulf basin Thursday and Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build southeast toward the northern Gulf behind the front. This will support gale force winds across the western Gulf W of 95W south of about 26N starting Thursday evening N of 22N, and after midnight Thursday night S of 22N, The gale will persist north of 22N through Friday morning, and into Friday night south of 22N. Strong to near gale northeasterly winds are expected across much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front through Friday night, tapering off into the day Saturday as the high weakens slightly and moves northeast of the Gulf basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trades over the waters of the central Caribbean, especially north of the Colombia coast through Thursday night. Late Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean with fresh to strong northeast winds north of the front. As high pressure builds east over the western Atlantic this upcoming weekend, 20 to 25 kt northeast to east winds will spread across the majority of the Caribbean Basin, with 25 to 30 kt winds just north of the coast of Colombia. As a result, seas will build to 8 to 12 ft over a large portion of the central Caribbean Saturday night. These stronger winds and large seas will likely persist through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A weakening stationary front over the southeastern zones will dissipate through tonight. High pressure over the remainder of the zones will slide southeast tonight. Strong return flow and seas of 8 to 9 ft offshore north Florida will continue into tonight. A squall line over zone AMZ111 will continue to propagate eastward through tonight ahead of a cold front that will emerge offshore the NW zones late tonight. The strong return flow will also shift east with this front along the northern zones, supporting an eastward propagating area of seas 8 to 9 ft through Wednesday night. The southern portion of this cold front will stall out from south Florida to just northeast of the Bahamas on Wednesday. Then, a strong cold front will cross the northwestern zones late Thursday, merging with the stationary front Thursday night. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected northwest of this second cold front starting on Friday. By midday Friday, the cold front will reach from 30N65W to Central Cuba. By Saturday, the cold front will reach from 26N65W to eastern Cuba. A strong area of high pressure building behind this front will reach the eastern united States on Saturday, which will bring about an expansion of fresh to strong northeasterly winds south of 29N, west of the cold front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale conditions possible Thu night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale conditions possible Thu night into Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale conditions possible Thu night into Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.