000 AGXX40 KNHC 050725 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 225 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence. A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1007mb low pressure located near 27N96W. Then, a cold front stretches from the low center to near Tuxpan Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted NW of the stationary front over the NW Gulf. The low pressure will track northeast towards SW Louisiana this evening and drag the cold front across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected behind the front today. The low will move inland tonight and continue to drag the front eastward, with the front gradually weakening as it crosses the eastern Gulf into Tuesday. Expect widespread shower and thunderstorms developing across the northern Gulf as the front moves across the basin. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters Tuesday evening through Wednesday. A strong cold front will emerge off the coast of Texas and Louisiana late Wednesday night. This front will rapidly cross the Gulf on Thursday. Strong high pressure will build southeast toward the northern Gulf behind the front. This will support gale force winds of 35-40 kt across the west-central Gulf late Thursday into Thursday night, and across the SW Gulf Thursday night into Friday. Strong to near gale northeasterly winds are expected across much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front through Friday, tapering off into the day Saturday as the high weakens slightly and moves northeast towards the Carolinas. The latest GFS run extends the gale conditions across the SW Gulf into Fri night. Expect building seas of 15-16 ft across the SW Gulf within the area of gale force winds. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected across most of the Gulf region Thursday night into Friday. This forecast package continues to show gale conditions possible across forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023 late Thursday through Friday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Fresh SE winds are noted across the western Caribbean between a 1022 mb high pressure over the SW N Atlantic and a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. These winds will persist today while increasing to 20-25 kt across the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, this evening as the cold front reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. The same high pressure system will support fresh to strong trades over the waters near the coast of Colombia at night, particularly between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds are also expected across the Windward Passage. By late Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean with fresh to strong northeast winds behind it. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Large northerly swell generated by a storm system well northeast of the forecast zones will continue to affect the northeastern zones through tonight. A cold front extending along 22N into the SE Bahamas will continue to move across the SE waters through Tuesday. High pressure over the northern zones will slide southeast through Tuesday, with return flow developing to the west of the high. The return flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt with seas building to 8 to 9 ft offshore north Florida late Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens between the high to the east and low pressure over the eastern United States. By Tuesday night, a cold front will begin to cross the northern zones. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 7-9 ft will persist ahead of the front, but mainly N of 29N. The front will reach from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by Wednesday night, then stall. A strong cold front will cross the northwestern zones late Thursday, merging with the stationary front Thursday night. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the wake of this second cold front starting on Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.