000 AGXX40 KNHC 041934 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 234 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A stationary front over the western basin will transition to a cold front through tonight as low pressure crosses northern Mexico and merges with the frontal system over the western basin late tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue into this evening over the northeast Gulf, as return flow draws northward around Atlantic high pressure, to a stationary front just inland over the northern Gulf coast. On Monday, the low will track northeast across the northwestern Gulf and drag the cold front across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected behind the front on Monday. The low will move inland later on Monday and continue to drag the front eastward through Monday night with the front gradually weakening as it crosses the eastern Gulf into Tuesday. Expect widespread shower and thunderstorms developing across the northern Gulf as the front moves across the basin. After a lull in activity Tuesday evening through Wednesday, a strong cold front will emerge off the coast of Texas and Louisiana late Wednesday night. This front will rapidly cross the Gulf basin Thursday. Strong high pressure will build southeast toward the northern Gulf behind the front. This will support gale force winds across the western Gulf south of about 26N Thursday into Thursday night. Strong to near gale northeasterly winds are expected across much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front through Thursday night, tapering off into the day Friday as the high weakens slightly and moves northeast of the Gulf basin. This forecast package continues to show gale conditions possible across forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023 Thursday into Thursday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. An area of diffluence aloft will continue to support enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf through tonight. A pair of surface troughs over the eastern Caribbean will dissipate tonight, while another surface trough just east of the Lesser Antilles crosses the islands late tonight with showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure building over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trades over the waters north of the Colombia coast and across the Gulf of Honduras through Monday night. The fresh to strong winds will become confined to the central Caribbean with the stronger winds along the northern coast of Colombia Tuesday through Thursday night, as the high to the north slides eastward. Late Thursday night, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean with fresh to strong northeast winds north of the front. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Large northwest swell generated by a storm system well northeast of the forecast zones will continue to affect the northwestern zones through Monday. A cold front east of the Bahamas will continue to move southeast and cross the southeastern zones through the early half of the week. High pressure over the northern zones will slide southeast through Tuesday, with return flow developing to the west of the high. The return flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt with seas building to 8 to 9 ft offshore north Florida late Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens between the high to the east and low pressure over the eastern United States. By Tuesday night a cold front will begin to cross the northern zones. The post- frontal winds will continue to support an eastward propagating area of seas 8 to 9 ft over the northern zones Tuesday through Wednesday night. The southern portion of this cold front will stall out from south Florida to just northeast of the Bahamas mid week. Then, a strong cold front will cross the northwestern zones late Thursday, merging with the stationary front Thursday night. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected northwest of this second cold front starting on Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale conditions possible Thu night into Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.