000 AGXX40 KNHC 040712 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 212 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence. A stationary front is over the NW Gulf with a line of showers and thunderstorms extending from south-central Louisiana to near 28N94N. Winds and seas will be higher near tstms. Low pressure inland over Mexico will propagate northeastward along the front, which will drag the front back over the northern Gulf on Sunday. The frontal boundary will then remain stationary over the northern Gulf waters before transitioning back to a warm front Sunday night ahead of another area of low pressure. This second low will enter the northwestern Gulf Monday morning, accompanied by a cold front. The low will track N-NE and over the southeastern United States Tuesday, dragging the cold front across the remainder of the Gulf. High pressure currently over the eastern United States will support fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds across the majority of the Gulf today. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are also noted in the wake of the frontal boundary per the most recent scatterometer pass. The wind speeds will decrease to moderate to fresh south of the front Sunday evening into Monday as the high over the eastern United States slides east over the Atlantic while slightly weakening. The cold front entering the Gulf on Monday will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds that will affect mainly the northwest Gulf Monday into Monday night. The cold front will weaken as it crosses into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. Global models are in good agreement on bringing a stronger cold front across the northwest Gulf beginning Wednesday night and sweeping it across the Gulf from northwest to southeast Wednesday night through Thursday. Strong high pressure behind the front will likely support gale force winds to 40 kt over portions of the western Gulf Thursday and Thursday night, with fresh to strong winds likely over the remainder of the Gulf. Current marine guidance suggests wave heights over the southwestern basin may peak near 16 ft with this gale event, with 12 ft seas developing as far north as 27N off the Texas coast by late Thursday. This forecast package shows gale conditions possible across forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023 Thursday into Thursday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A surface trough over the southwestern Caribbean supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms will track westward today while weakening. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Monday. By Monday night, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This will support fresh to locally strong winds across the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras Monday night through Tuesday. Similar wind speeds are also expected near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela through Thursday morning. In the long range, a strong cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, reaching the northwest Caribbean Thursday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence. A cold front extends from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds follows the front with seas of 4-6 ft, with the exception of the northeast zone AMZ115 where fresh NW winds are noted and seas in the 6-8 ft range. Seas will continue to build to 8-9 ft across this forecast zone today, primarily in NW swell. The front will reach from 24N65W to the central Bahamas late today and move across the SE waters on Monday. High pressure over the eastern United States will extend a ridge over the forecast waters the next couple of days, with a 1021 mb high pressure developing over the N waters on Monday. The high will shift eastward through Wednesday as a cold front enters the NW waters. This will support gentle to light winds within a few hundred nautical miles of the high center early next week. To the west of the high, moderate to fresh return flow will develop off the eastern coast of Florida Monday, increasing to 20-30 kt by Tuesday, mainly N of 27N W of 75W. A cold front will enter the NW waters Tuesday night, with moderate to fresh NW winds behind this front. Another cold front will enter the northwest waters Thursday night with fresh to strong northwesterly winds behind the front. A large swell event is underway over the central Atlantic with swell of 7 to 9 ft forecast to propagate over the northeastern zones through Monday, with lesser swell of 5 to 7 ft spreading to the forecast waters east of 75W early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.