000 AGXX40 KNHC 031934 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 234 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A warm front over the northwestern Gulf will stall across northern Gulf through tonight. Low pressure inland over Mexico will propagate eastward along the front, which will drag the front back over the northern Gulf on Sunday. The frontal boundary will then remain stationary over the northern Gulf waters before transitioning back to a warm front Sunday night ahead of another area of low pressure. This second low will enter the northwestern Gulf Monday morning, accompanied by a cold front. The low will track northwest and over the southeastern United States Tuesday, dragging the cold front across the remainder of the Gulf. High pressure currently over the eastern United States will support fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds across the majority of the Gulf through Sunday, except for moderate northerly winds north of the frontal boundary. The wind speeds will decrease to moderate to fresh south of the front Sunday evening into Monday as the high over the eastern United States slides east over the Atlantic. The cold front entering the Gulf on Monday will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds that will affect mainly the northwest Gulf Monday into Monday night. The cold front will weaken as it crosses into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. Global models are in good agreement on bringing a stronger cold front across the northwest Gulf beginning Wednesday night and sweeping it across the Gulf from northwest to southeast Wednesday night through Thursday. Strong high pressure behind the front will likely support gale force winds to 40 kt over portions of the western Gulf basin Thursday and Thursday night, with fresh to strong winds likely over the remainder of the Gulf. Current guidance suggests wave heights over the southwestern basin may peak near 17 ft with this gale event, with 12 ft seas developing as far north as 27N off the Texas coast by late Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A surface trough over the southwestern Caribbean supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms will track westward through tonight while weakening. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail through Monday. By Monday night, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extending over the southwestern Caribbean. This will support fresh to locally strong winds along the Colombia coast and Gulf of Honduras Monday night through Tuesday. The strong winds will become confined to mainly along the Colombia coast Tuesday night through Wednesday. In the long range, a strong cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, reaching the northwest Caribbean late Thursday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence. High pressure over the eastern United States will dominate weather over the forecast waters the next couple of days, with moderate to fresh winds across the zones. The northeast zone AMZ115 may experience fresh to strong northwest winds through tonight before diminishing Sunday. The high will slide east over the western Atlantic Sunday night, then will slide southeast over the northwestern zones Monday through Tuesday. This will support gentle to light winds within a few hundred nautical miles of the high center early next week. To the west of the high, 15 to 25 kt return flow will develop off the eastern coast of Florida Monday, increasing to 20 to 30 kt by Tuesday. A cold front will enter the northeastern waters Tuesday night, with moderate to fresh northeast winds behind this front. Another cold front will enter the northwest waters Thursday night with fresh to strong northwesterly winds behind the front. A large swell event is underway over the central Atlantic with swell of 8 to 10 ft forecast to propagate over the northeastern zones tonight through Monday, with lesser swell of 5 to 7 ft spreading to the forecast waters east of 75W early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.