000 AGXX40 KNHC 021853 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A stationary front extends across the basin from Key West Florida to the NW Gulf. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong easterly winds north of 24N west of 90W. The front will gradually lift northward and transition to a warm front in the NW gulf this weekend. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the SE CONUS will support fresh to strong E-SE winds across the northern Gulf waters through Saturday, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds across most of the Gulf region Sunday. Low pressure is expected to develop Sunday along the frontal boundary in southern Texas, then drift northward along the Texas coast through Monday night. GFS model guidance shows the low dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters Monday through Tuesday night, then stalling and weakening over the southern Gulf Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A surface trough over the eastern Caribbean extends from the Mona Passage to the ABC Islands. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds east of the trough axis. The trough will move slowly westward across the basin and weaken into Saturday night. High pressure northeast of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic zones. SE winds are expected to strengthen a bit Monday in the NW Caribbean including the Yucatan Channel, as an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast, tightening the pressure gradient west of Cuba. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A cold front associated with a deepening low pressure system north of the area extends from 31N72W to 26N80W. It will reach from 29N65W to the straits of Florida Saturday, then become stationary from 25N65W to 24N80W Sunday. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and 4-5 ft seas are expected behind the front, while moderate to fresh SW winds are likely ahead of the front over NE waters, with max seas to 6-7 ft. The strong low pressure system will generate large swell, which will sweep into the central Atlantic Sunday through Tuesday, with max seas building to 9-10 ft over far NE waters by early Sunday. GFS model brings another cold front off the Florida coast Tuesday, reaching from 31N72W to Miami Florida Wednesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.