000 AGXX40 KNHC 020724 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. A stationary front extends from Ft. Myers Florida to the central Gulf near 25N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted per scatterometer data N of the front and W of 90W, with seas of 5-7 ft based on buoy observations. This front will gradually lift N and transition to a warm front in the NW gulf this weekend. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the SE CONUS will support fresh to strong E-SE winds across the northern Gulf waters on Saturday, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds across most of the Gulf region on Sunday. At that time, a frontal boundary will be near the coast of Texas. A low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary on Monday and will move NE, dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. The front will reach the central Gulf Monday night and the eastern Gulf Tuesday night while weakening. Mainly fresh winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range are expected on either side of the front. Looking ahead...a stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Wednesday followed by strong to gale force winds and building seas of 13-14 ft over the SW Gulf on Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends from near Puerto Rico to the ABC Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on either side of the trough axis per scatterometer data. The trough will move into the central Caribbean today, reaching the western part of the basin on Saturday. High pressure northeast of the area will shift SE into the central Atlantic through Sat. A modest pressure gradient south of the high will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic zones. SE winds are expected to strengthen a bit Sun and Mon in the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, as an area of low pressure develops along the Texas coast, tightening the pressure gradient west of Cuba. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A cold front stretches from 31N74W to near Lake Okeechobee Florida. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Friday evening and from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida Saturday evening. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas generally below 6 ft are expected in the wake of the front, while moderate to fresh SW winds are forecast ahead of the front over the NE waters with seas of 6-7 ft. The front will be associated to a very large low pressure system across the N central Atlantic. This will bring fresh NW winds across the far NE waters on Saturday. In addition, swells generated by this strong low pressure system will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas Sun through Tue, with building seas up to 9-10 ft across the far NE waters early on Sunday. From Saturday through Monday, expect mainly fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Straits of Florida as a continental high pressure system moves eastward into the western Atlantic. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.