000 AGXX40 KNHC 011755 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Low-medium confidence. A cold front bisecting the basin extends from northern Florida to 25N90W then stationary to 18N95W. Buoy obs from the west-central gulf earlier today indicated max seas to 9-10 ft, but latest obs show max 6-7 ft seas with fresh N-NE winds. Expect fresh to strong NW winds for a few more hours this afternoon south of 21N west of 95W. The western half of the front will weaken, with the remnant boundary drifting northward tonight and Fri. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are expected near the frontal boundary in the northwest and north central gulf Fri and Fri night as it transitions to a warm front in the NW gulf this weekend. Models are in fairly good agreement showing a frontal boundary across coastal Texas, but the EC is more aggressive bringing a cold front across the basin Sun and Mon, while the GFS keeps the front closer to the coast and much weaker. Divergence in guidance beyond Sat results in lower confidence forecast in extended portion of grids. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. A trough across the NE Caribbean will weaken and move westward across the basin through Sat. High pressure north-northeast of the area will shift SE into the central Atlantic through Sat. A modest pressure gradient south of the high will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic zones. SE winds are expected to strengthen a bit Sun and Mon in the NW Caribbean as an area of low pressure develops along the Texas coast, tightening the pressure gradient west of Cuba. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. High pressure centered NE of the region near 30N57W will shift SE into the central Atlantic through Sat. Winds and seas east of the Bahamas will begin to subside tonight as the high shifts east and the pressure gradient between the high and a surface trough in the NE Caribbean relaxes. A cold front moving off N Florida today will extend from 31N72W to near Palm Beach Fri, and weaken from 29N65W across the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys Sat, then become diffuse and stationary over forecast waters along 22N Sun. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail E of front across far N waters through Fri, then strengthen Fri night and Sat across far NE waters as the parent system strengthens in the central Atlantic. Very large and impressive low evolving out of this system this weekend across the N central Atlantic and will sweep moderate N swell into eastern half of forecast waters Sun through Tue. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.