000 AGXX40 KNHC 301803 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence through Saturday, low confidence afterwards. A cold front moving off the Texas coast extends from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville TX. Surface observations show fresh to strong N winds and building seas to 8-10 ft. Expect max sustained winds to briefly reach 35 kt through midnight along the central and southern coast of Mexico south of 24N, then diminish rapidly overnight as the synoptic forcing shifts east. GFS and EC are in good agreement with this scenario. The front will weaken with the remnant boundary drifting northward Thu night and Fri, with fresh to strong E-SE winds developing over most of the northwest and north central gulf Fri and Fri night. Considerable disagreement between primary model guidance occurs this weekend into early next week. The GFS slides a weak front into the northern Gulf, but the EC brings a surface low across the SE U.S. and a trailing cold front deep into the subtropics, with strong NW winds behind the front Sun in the western Gulf. The difference is enough that blending of the two models is not practical. Went with EC solution which has been more consistent and reliable, but confidence is low. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence. Widespread showers associated with a surface trough across the NE Caribbean and a weak low NE of Puerto Rico near 19N65W will persist mainly across the SE Caribbean this evening then weaken later tonight as the trough moves further west. The trough will move slowly westward across the basin through Sat and become diffuse as it moves over the Greater Antilles. Trade winds will strengthen across the eastern half of the forecast area Fri and Sat as high pressure north of the area moves into the Central Atlantic. Also expect SE winds to intensify the western half of the basin Sun and Mon as the aforementioned cold front in the Gulf of Mexico moves eastward. Expect the front to reach the Yucatan Channel, but not push very far into the NW Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence. High pressure centered near Bermuda will shift SE into the Central Atlantic through Sat. A tightening pressure gradient associated with a surface trough moving west across the Greater Antilles will support fresh to strong trade winds east of the Bahamas through early Fri. A cold front moving off the coast of NE Florida Thu will extend from 31N73W to Miami Fri, and from 29N65W to the Straits of Florida Sat. Fresh N-NW winds are expected behind the front, becoming moderate to fresh NE winds as the front moves further east. Used a blend of GFS and EC initially, but beyond Fri model timing begins to diverge, and have used more consistent EC model guidance through the weekend into early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat or by telephone. .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.