000 AGXX40 KNHC 301044 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 544 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE WEAKENED MODESTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR TEXAS COLD. BUOYS SHOW SEAS STILL 8-10 FT ACROSS LARGE PART OF CENTRAL PORTIONS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST...FRONT WILL MOVE SE TODAY AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO BY EARLY EVENING...THEN WEAKENING FROM SARASOTA FL TO 25N95W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT. BRIEF NLY BLAST BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO GENERATE VERY SHORT LIVED AREA OF GALES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF FRONT AS FRONT MOVES SWD...WITH GALES OFF TUXPAN 15-18Z WED THEN SHIFTING TO VERACRUZ AREA 00-06Z THU. GFS AND EC INDICATE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER 09Z. FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH REMNANTS STALLED E TO W ALONG 26N BY FRI MORNING WITH MODEST PRES GRADIENT TO THE N SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SW TAIL OF ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE NE CARIB THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SE PART OF CIRCULATION...WHERE BEST LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES...ACROSS SE CARIB AND WINDWARDS. INDUCED LLVL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM N CENTRAL VENEZUELA TO NE CARIB AND LLVL LOW...POSSIBLY STILL AT SFC NEAR 19N62W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SE CARIB WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL W OF TROUGH...AND E TO SE NW PORTIONS. NE WINDS SPILLING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE HAVE BECOME MORE ELY AND STILL LIKELY 20-25 KT BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NE CARIB TODAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME A BIT MORE N TO S ALIGNED...AND CONTINUE ACROSS REST OF BASIN THU THROUGH SAT. STRONG RIDGE TO THE N WILL SHIFT SE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR FRESHENING RETURN FLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. WINDS THERE WILL WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI AS FRONT STALLS ACROSS E CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS SE U.S. AND INTO W ATLC FRI NIGHT AND SAT TO BACK FLOW TO ELY ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN AND BRING ABOUT AN ELY WIND REGIME BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO SUN-MON WITH FRESHENING RETURN FLOW NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF IT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EC BEYOND SAT AS IT HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT OF MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STRONG RIDGE BEHIND FRONT MOVING ACROSS NE PART OF AREA IS PRODUCING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND COMPLEX LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. PARTIAL SCAT PASSES EARLY TONIGHT SUGGESTED NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT S OF 27N FROM 60W INTO THE SE BAHAMAS AND WITH BROAD SWATH OF 8-11 FT SEAS AND MAX TO AT LEAST 12 FT. LLVL SWIRL N OF MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED SW INTO HISPANIOLA WHILE LOW PRES NE OF LEEWARDS COULD STILL BE AT SFC AND CERTAINLY IN LlvlS...NEAR 19N62W. FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS W PART AND FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS VEERING SLY OFF N FL. SFC HIGH FORCING THE PRES GRADIENT JUST NE OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT ESE THEN SE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH GRADIENT TO THE S BEGINNING TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE SLY WINDS INCREASE NW WATERS AND SLOWLY VEER TO SSW TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT JUST N OF AREA. SFC LOW WILL MOVE W NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN AND LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND MAX IN PROCESS. HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OF 20N BY THU AFTERNOON AND NEXT FRONT MOVES SE OFF OF SE U.S. COAST...THEN REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...THEN STALL SAT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS-EC THROUGH FRI. BEYOND FRI MODEL TIMING BEGINS TO DIVERGE AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT EC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.