000 AGXX40 KNHC 291815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS...MAINTAINING HIGH SEAS TO 10 FT N OF 28N ACROSS THE BASIN. GFS WINDS AND WW3 SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT LOW FOR THIS EVENT AND THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EC IN BOTH SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE. REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WED EVENING...THEN WEAKENING FROM SARASOTA FLA TO 25N95W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THU EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT. BRIEF NLY BLAST BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO GENERATE VERY SHORT LIVED GALES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF 95W AS FRONT MOVES SWD WED...WITH GALES OFF TUXPAN 15-18Z WED THEN SHIFTING TO VERACRUZ AREA 00-06Z THU. GFS AND EC INDICATE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AFTER 09Z. FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH REMNANTS ALIGNED ALONG 26N BY FRI MORNING WITH MODEST PRES GRADIENT TO THE N SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NE CARIB CREATING COMPLEX LLVL PATTERN E OF PUERTO RICO. MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF 65W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N60W ARE EXPECTED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN...WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN WED. GFS HAS COME MUCH BETTER IN LINE WITH EC PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS VEER ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND FRESH NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES W OF PUERTO RICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG RIDGE BEHIND FRONT MOVING E OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 28N NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CREATING BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND BUILDING WIND WAVES S OF 26N AND W OF 60W INTO THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THU WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...THEN STALL SAT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS-EC THROUGH FRI. BEYOND FRI MODEL TIMING BEGINS TO DIVERGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED A GFS BLEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Wed. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Wed night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.