000 AGXX40 KNHC 290857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 357 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SOUTHERLY GALES ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT WITH AREA OF PEAK WIND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EWD TO AS FAR E AS THE W FL PANHANDLE. BUOY 42012 HAS RISEN TO 10 FT SINCE 06Z...WHILE PERSISTENT STRONG SLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 8-11 FT FROM W CENTRAL PORTIONS NE TO THE 42012 AREA. GFS WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT LOW FOR THIS EVENT AND THUS WW3 AND GEFS MAX ARE LOW AS WELL AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS EC IN BOTH SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE. COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES OF TEXAS AND NW LA TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT FOR FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION. FRONT TO LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO REGION FROM THE NW AND MERGE ACROSS NW WATERS THEN SHIFT SE THROUGH WED. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT...REACHING FROM W FL PANHANDLE TO S OF VERACRUZ BY WED EVENING...THEN WEAKENING FROM SARASOTA AREA TO 25.5N95W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING. BRIEF NLY BLAST BEHIND FRONT TO YIELD VERY SHORT LIVED GALES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AS FRONT MOVE SWD ACROSS FAR W PORTIONS WED...WITH GALES SUGGESTED OFF TUXPAN 15-18Z WED AND THEN SHIFTING TO VERACRUZ AREA 00-06Z THU...BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY. FRONT TO THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH WEAKENING REMNANTS TO BECOME E TO W ALIGNED ALONG ABOUT 25-26N BY FRI MORNING WITH MODEST PRES GRADIENT TO THE N TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS. NW PART OF FRONT TO LIFT N INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WATERS BY FRI EVENING AND THEN TO THE TEXAS COAST BY 12Z SAT. HAVE FOLLOWED EC CLOSELY BEYOND SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SHARP AND ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ESE ACROSS THE NE CARIB THIS MORNING CREATING COMPLEX LLVL PATTERN E OF MONA PASSAGE. SCT LINES AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN HAVE LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SRN WINDWARDS ATTM. EVENING SCAT DATA SUGGESTED SHARP LLVL TROFFING ACROSS NE CARIB TO THE ABC'S AND POSSIBLE SFC LOW NE OF TFFR INVOF 18N60W. CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW UNDER UPPER VORTEX JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHILE THE OTHER SMALLER SFC LOW NE OF TFFR IS INITIALIZED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. GFS HAS COME MUCH BETTER IN LINE WITH EC PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SHORT TERM. STRONG NNE FLOW ALSO DEPICTED BY EVENING SCAT DATA IN LEE OF ERN HISPANIOLA PRODUCING SEAS 6-8 FT ATTM. UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE E CARIB AND ADJACENT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH VORT FORECAST TO SINK SSE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CARIB BY WED EVENING AND THEN INTO S AMERICA THU-FRI. ASSOCIATED LLVL TROFFING ACROSS THE E CARIB ATTM WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOSING UPPER SUPPORT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW-MOD LVL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC TO THE N. THIS TO PRODUCE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WINDS VEER ACROSS THE NW AND OPEN UP INTO GULF...AND STRONG NE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PASSAGES AND TYPICAL GAPS W OF PUERTO RICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVED SE OF MOST OF AREA AND IS ACROSS NE CARIB AND THEN NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM ABOUT 26N65W TO NW BAHAMAS. VERY COMPLEX LLVL PATTERN CARVED OUT BY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND VORT OVER NE CARIB WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT WWD TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE BEHIND FRONT AND MOVING E ACROSS NW ATLC TO PRODUCE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FROM N OF THE LLVL TROFFING ACROSS THE NE CARIB TO ABOUT 28N NEXT COUPLE OF DAY...TO PRODUCE BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND BUILDING WIND SWELL S OF 26N AND W OF 60W INTO THE BAHAMAS. ANY MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE SFC LOW NE OF TFFR ATTM AS IT MOVES WWD WILL CREATE AND AREA OF 30 KT WINDS AND POSSIBLE TO GALE FORCE WITH SEAS 12-15 FT OR SO AS LOW AND TROUGH SHIFT WWD NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE USED A TRUE CONSENSUS OF GFS-EC THROUGH FRI. BEYOND FRI MODEL TIMING BEGINS TO DIVERGE AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT EC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.