000 AGXX40 KNHC 281900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 20N W OF 90W PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE NW COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT INLAND TUE...THEN RETURN AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE TEXAS TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO WED MORNING...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO WED EVENING. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO WED AND SHIFT S TO VERACRUZ WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...AND TO 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SW GULF NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 64W AND THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. THE THROUGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 11N66W...THEN STALL TUE...BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS N OF AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA MAINLY E OF 80W WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ALSO INCREASE S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP NW PORTIONS TUE-WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 29N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY S OF 28N WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N58W TO 19N66W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. BASED ON THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS...NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE NOTED N OF 21N W OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 64W. IN ADDITION...BUOY 41043 LOCATED NEAR 21N65W IS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. E-SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS SEEN S OF 22N E OF THE TROUGH TO 62W. MARINE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MERGE ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 27N65 TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TODAY THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND BECOMES ILL DEFINED TUE AND WED. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ACROSS WATERS S OF 28N. LATE ON TUE... MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES A BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS FROM 21N TO 27N E OF 75W TO BEYOND 60W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9-10 FT WITH THESE WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON THU. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF 77W AHEAD OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.