000 AGXX40 KNHC 280900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE BECOME ILL DEFINED ACROSS THE SE GULF OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL BUT STRAITS OF FL. OBS SUGGEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS SE TEXAS NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT ATTM. ELSEWHERE N AND W PORTIONS...MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL AND WILL SPREAD E TODAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED LOW ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN W TEXAS. HAVE CONTINUED THE EC TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TUE. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SUPPORTING UPPER ENERGY LIFTS QUICKLY NE OUT OF REGION...LEAVING FRONT TO MEANDER ACROSS NW GULF COASTS THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT BEFORE REINFORCING DRY FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS AND LA AND ACROSS NW AND N GULF WED. FRONT TO MOVE SWD DOWN MEXICAN COAST. GFS HAS FORECAST NLY GALES BEHIND FRONT BRIEFLY OCCURRING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ PST SEVERAL RUNS. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AND POSITION...AND ALTHOUGH NONE OF OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 10M GALES...WINDS TO GALE FORCE INDICATED IN BL AND FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT TO ADVERTISE GALE CONDITIONS WED. FRONT TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM N CENTRAL FL TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU WITH PRES GRADIENT DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AN INVERTED NE TO SSW TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 15N71W ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND HS COMBINED WITH FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE W ATLC AND ASSOC HIGH PRES TO BACK WINDS TO MORE NNE W OF THIS TROUGH...PRODUCING SEAS 4-6 FT FROM LEE OF CUBA SW AND NW PORTIONS. SHARP UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ESE ACROSS ERN CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE AND ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF CARIB. MOIST SE TO S WINDS TO THE E OF TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIB RESPONDING TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND YIELDING SCT DEEP CNVTN ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NE SECTIONS THAT SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY E AND NE TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. MODELS HAVE COME IS BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND POTENTIAL SFC LOW NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE EC SHOWING TROFFING SHIFTING TO NE CARIB BY 48 HRS THAN BEGIN SHUNTED BACK TO THE W AS STRONG BROAD RIDGE MOVE ACROSS NW AND DEEP LAYERED ELY FLOW DOMINATED THE SUB TROPICAL SW N ATLC AND GREATER ANTILLES. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP NW PORTIONS AS THIS OCCURS TUE-WED THEN DIMINISHES WED NIGHT-THU AS GULF OF MEXICO FRONT BISECTS THE GULF. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N64W TO NW BAHAMAS WITH POSSIBLE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ENERGETIC AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS KICKING OFF SCT DEEP CNVTN E OF IT TO THE N THROUGH NE OF HISPANIOLA AND PR. N CENTRAL CARIB INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MONA PASSAGE AND INTO SE WATERS WHILE ANOTHER PORTION OR A SEPARATE SECOND SECTION OF TROUGHING IS A BIT TO THE NE WITH POTENTIAL LLVL LOW NEAR 22N63W. STRONG NE TO E WINDS WERE DEPICTED PAST 24 HOURS N AND NW OF THESE BOUNDARIES AS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB THROUGH WED AND NUDGE THE TROUGHING EWD AS WELL. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PRODUCE A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH WINDS IN THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS W ATLC AND PRODUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BEHIND BOTH THE FRONT AND SUSPECTED OLDER LLVL BOUNDARY JUST TO ITS SE TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA AND LONG FETCH OF NE TO E WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS THEN VEERING ELY TUE NIGHT-WED. THIS TO YIELD ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND SIZABLE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS. FLOW ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS WILL HAVE VEERED TO S-SE AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WITH SEAS TO REACH 6-8 FT OFF JAX AND FAR NW WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.