000 AGXX40 KNHC 271642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1142 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE SE REACHING FROM FL STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW AND INLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW IS FORECAST SW OF TROUGH TILL THEN. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SW WATERS...AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...WITH EMBEDDED RW...AND WILL BE CARRIED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR THROUGH TONIGHT. NE OF TROUGH...MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW IS NOTED W OF 90W. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ALONG THE TX COASTAL BEND TONIGHT...WITH THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREADING OUTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW WATERS ON MON...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE...WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 12 FT...ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM EXTREME W FL PANHANDLE TO THE TX COASTAL BEND EARLY TUE...THEN DRIFT BACK INLAND LATE TUE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A NOW STRONGER COLD FRONT RE-ENTERING THE NW GULF AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO AT MIDDAY WED...AND REACH THE SE GULF AT SUNSET THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE FRONT ON WED NIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ON THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY MON WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOCK TO THE E TO SE AT 10 TO 15 KT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. BY THEN...THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED SE AND EXTEND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E REACHING A POSITION FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS ON MON ...WITH STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND TO THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS ON TUE...WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING MODERATE SE ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF THE TROUGH... FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... AND FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ON WED NIGHT AND THU WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FL WILL REACH FROM 31N58W TO THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FROM 31N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH FRESH SE RETURN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON...THEN INCREASING TO STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MON NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL FL ON WED NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW FLOW EVERYWHERE N OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST ON THU...WITH MODERATE NW FLOW FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N69W TO TO HAITI AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT RW/ISOL TS WITHIN 120 NM W OF ITS AXIS...AND ABOUT 300 NM E OF ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT SE WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 21N70W TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM 31N58W TO THE MONA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SE TO A POSITION FROM 24N55W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MON NIGHT...EXTEND ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ON TUE...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE W AGAIN ON WED AND THU. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW EXPECTED S OF 28N W OF 63W ON MON NIGHT...S OF 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 75W ON TUE AND WED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ON THU INTO FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.