000 AGXX40 KNHC 270854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED SE ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL JUST S OF THE LAKE NEARLY WWD TO NEAR 24N90W. A NW TO SE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM NEAR TUXPAN TO E CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. E OF TROUGH...MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING YIELDING SEAS 4-6 FT NE OF TROUGH EXCEPT 2-3 FT NE PART. FRONT TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS FL AND SE GULF TODAY AND REACH FROM NEAR FL KEYS TO OFFSHORE OF N YUCATAN THIS EVENING THEN WASH OUT ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND STRAITS OF FL TONIGHT AND MON AS FLOW VEERS E THEN SE ACROSS E PART OF GULF. SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS SE U.S. TO SHIFT ESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND COMBINE WITH DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES MOVING INTO NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO PRODUCE STRONG RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W HALF OF BASIN STARTING TONIGHT THEN SPREAD EWD AS SFC HIGH OPENS UP INTO LOW PRES. EC REMAINS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS SLY FLOW THAN GFS THROUGH EARLY TUE...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHER IN WIND AND SEAS TO MATCH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY WED AND REACH MOBILE BAY TO W CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. GFS STRONGER THAN EC WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT...AND INDICATES GALES BREIFLY ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND THEN SHIFTING DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE AND FOR THE MOMENT HAVE ONLY USED PEAK WINDS IN THE LOW 30S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS INDICATED BY MODELS PAST FEW DAYS...INVERTED TROFFING HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 72-73W AND EXTENDS N ACROSS TURKS AND CAICOS TO ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. HIGH TO THE NNE YDA HAS SHIFTED NE AND WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS HAVE BACKED NE TO NNE AND DIMINISHED MODESTLY. THIS LEAVING 20 KT BLOWING IN LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA AND SEAS 4-6 FT NW QUARTER...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO ESE FLOW IS FOUND E OF 70W. ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIB WHERE CNVTN REMAINS ACTIVE. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING E OFF ERN U.S. COAST AND S/W TRAILING SLIGHTLY IN THE BASE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY MON AND AMPLIFY. VERY ENERGETIC BASE OF TROUGH TO TRIGGER VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS N AND S...AND NUDGE INVERTED TROUGH EWD IN PROCESS. COLD FRONT ACROSS SW N ATLC AND CENTRAL FL WILL SHIFT SE WITH UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY MON NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF FRONT...AND ALSO BRIDGING ACROSS FRONT TO INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL HAS MOVED TO NE CARIB. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIB DURING THIS TIME WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE...LEE OF CUBA AND AROUND SE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE A BROAD A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND YIELD S TO SE WINDS E OF TROUGH THROUGH TUE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME PICKED UP BY LVL ELY FLOW WITH REMNANTS SHIFTING BACK TO THE W LATE TUE AND WED. STRONG RIDGE N OF THE AREA TUE-WED AND PRODUCE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP NW CARIB AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERSHAS MOVED SE AND EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL FL JUST S OF THE LAKE. ACROSS FLORIDA WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FL BY 00Z MON. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS NW ATLC IS GENERATED STRONG BRIEF PULSE OF NW SWELL THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN WATERS BEHIND FRONT AND RAISE SEAS N OF 30N TO 7-8 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE... SUPPORTING ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT. LLVL INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT ALONG 72-73W...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST STRONG PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND SHIFT SE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE WEAKENING. LOOK OR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH WHERE THIS STRONG LLVL FLOW NEAR LLVL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE FORCING. FRONT TO BISECT AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS E CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW...GRADUALLY EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS NW OF FRONT TO BAHAMAS BY MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH INVERTED TROUGH AND STRONG FLOW TO ITS N AND HAVE LITERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO SHOW A NARROW AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS SHIFTING FROM TURKS AND CAICOS SE TO N OF MONA PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.