000 AGXX40 KNHC 261800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH IN THE SW GULF IS AIDING NLY FLOW FUNNELING THROUGH SE MEXICO ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS E OF THE TROUGH WHERE SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TX/MEX BORDER BY TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS AND MAINTAIN SEAS 4-6 FT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO SE U.S. COAST BY 00Z MON WITH VEERING WINDS SETTING UP RETURN FLOW W PART. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON AND SPREAD EWD AS HIGH OPENS UP INTO DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES ACROSS NRN PLAINS. EC IS BIT STRONGER WITH THIS SLY FLOW THAN GFS THROUGH EARLY TUE...AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHER IN WIND AND SEAS TO MATCH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY WED AND REACH MOBILE TO W CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF AREA IS MAINTAINING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NRN CARIBBEAN TO HONDURAS. FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT NE TODAY...ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS FLA AND SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AND CONTINUE ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MON MORNING. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN SYNCH WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CARIB. MODELS RESPOND WITH STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA BY LATE SUN...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN SFC WINDS. ASSOCIATED THROUGH TO PUSH SE AND REACH NE CARIB BY TUE MORNING. STRONG DEEP LEVEL CONVECTION LIKELY TO ERUPT ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS TROUGH LIKELY TO FRESHEN NE WINDS ACROSS NW CARIB AND WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE IN FCST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IN NW WATERS MOVING SE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FL BY 00Z MON. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS NW ATLC WILL MODERATE LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND FRONT AND RAISE SEAS N OF 30N TO 7-8 FT BY MON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE... SUPPORTING ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS SE WATERS MON...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG TROUGH IN THE NE CARIB. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH NE FLOW W OF FRONT THROUGH MON...GRADUALLY EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS NW OF FRONT TO BAHAMAS BY MON NIGHT AND TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT MON AND TUE. GFS TROUGH IS STRONGER...AND INDICATES DEEPER LAYERED SFC LOW SHIFTING NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING. OTHER GLOBAL MDLS HAVE WEAK SFC LOW. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS WEAKER ALTERNATE SOLUTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.