000 AGXX40 KNHC 260829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 329 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING A BIT MORE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS MORNING WHILE W PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 27N ACROSS NW PART. A NW TO SE ALIGNED TROUGH IS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST AND ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND AIDING IN NLY FLOW FUNNELING THROUGH SE MEXICO AND ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS E OF THE TROUGH WHERE SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY AND REACH S CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BRO BY 00Z SUN AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS STRAITS OF FL BY OOZ MON. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS AND MAINTAIN SEAS 4-6 FT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO SE U.S. COAST BY 00Z MON WITH VEERING WINDS SETTING UP RETURN FLOW W PART BY THAT TIME. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON AND SPREAD EWD AS HIGH OPENS US INTO DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES ACROSS NRN PLAINS. EC IS BIT STRONGER WITH THIS SLY FLOW THAN GFS THROUGH EARLY TUE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHER IN WIND AND SEAS TO MATCH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY WED AND REACH MOBILE BAY TO W CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRESSURE JUST SW OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING MODEST PRES GRADIENT N OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ALONG 20N ACROSS NE CARIB TO NE COASTAL HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT...POSSIBLY TO 10 FT W CARIB. FRESH ENE TO E WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND ALSO MAINTAINING 6-9 FT SEAS DUE TO LONGER FETCH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE TODAY AND RIDGE WEAKEN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS N FLORIDA AND WRN ATLC...AND PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ACROSS CARIB. STRONG SHARP AND ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP ACROSS FL AND SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT-SUN ACROSS CONTINUE SE ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MON MORNING. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TO PRODUCE SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN SYNCH WITH UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL CARIB. MODELS RESPOND WITH STRONG CNVTN ACROSS ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA BY LATE SUN WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN SFC OUTPUT. ASSOCIATED THROUGH TO PUSH SE AND REACH NE CARIB BY TUE MORNING. STRONG AND DEEP CNVTN LIKELY TO ERUPT ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS TROUGH TO FRESHEN THE NE WINDS ACROSS NW CARIB AND WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS ALONG ABOUT 20N N OF THE NE CARIB THIS MORNING THEN BECOME SHEARLINE ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES JUST SW OF BERMUDA MAINTAINING MODEST PRES GRADIENT N OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY AND FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS BETWEEN 25N AND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS ERN CUBA. SEAS LOOK TO BE 7-10 FT ACROSS THIS ZONE PER OVERNIGHT OBS. HIGH WILL SHIFT NE NEXT 24 HRS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH PRES GRADIENT...AND RESULTANT WINDS AND SEAS...WHILE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO SW N ATLC...THEN REACH FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FL BY 00Z MON. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS NW ATLC WILL MODERATE LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT AND RAISE SEAS N OF 30N TO 8 FT THROUGH MON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SUPPORTING SHARP AND ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CARIB NNE ACROSS SE WATERS MON...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING MODEST LOW PRES TO DEVELOP ALONG TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CARIB. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT TO FRESH NE FLOW TO THE NW OF FRONT SUN THROUGH MON...AND GRADUALLY EXPENDING AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS NW OF FRONT TO BAHAMAS BY MON NIGHT AND TUE. SEAS TO RESPOND AND BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THAT TIME. GFS IS STRONGER WITH ENERGY IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INDICATES DEEPER LAYERED SFC LOW THAT SHIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC AND BOMBS OUT...WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WEAKER IN SFC LOW. HAVE TRENDED AGAIN TOWARDS WEAKER LOW SOLUTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.