000 AGXX40 KNHC 251847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 147 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST OVER THE SW GULF SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THESE WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A VEERING OF THE WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER INTERIOR MEXICO. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF AND N CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT MONDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MODERATE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL INCREASE WINDS TO FRESH OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEN...MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE BASIN RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS TO 9 FT WILL CONTINUE S AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SUPPORTING THESE WINDS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS SATURDAY AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM 21N63W TO THE SW BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE S OF 28N W OF THE FRONT MONDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING MONDAY OVER OUR SE ZONES...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT. WITH THE CURRENT HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE...AM HOLDING WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION THAT IS IN AGREEMENT BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ONLY DEVELOPS THIS TROUGH INTO A WEAK LOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MONDAY...THEN MOVING IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.