000 AGXX40 KNHC 250844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 344 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W ATLC WSW TO NE GULF. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN WRN PORTION OF RIDGE AND OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE N AND NW CARIB TO MAINTAIN FRESH ENE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND ADJACENT SE GULF...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-6 FT...POSSIBLY AROUND 7 FT AGAINST THE FL CURRENT. FRONT WILL DRIFT ESE TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND PUSHES THE REINVIGORATED BOUNDARY SE ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND MUCH OF FLORIDA...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 00Z SUN...THEN PUSH S INTO THE STRAITS LATE SUN WHILE RETURN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS E PORTIONS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SUN AS STRONG RETURN FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED W HALF SUN NIGHT AND MON AND SPREADS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN MON NIGHT BEFORE STRUNG OUT FRONT MOVES INTO NW PORTIONS TUE MORNING. S TO SSW WINDS COULD APPROACH 30 KT MON AND MON NIGHT ACROSS NW THEN N CENTRAL PORTIONS WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-12 FT POSSIBLY HIGHER. FRONT TO STALL NW PORTIONS WHILE MOVING SWD A BIT ALONG MEXICAN COAST PAST TUX BY WED AS MAX WINDS AND SEAS SHIFT INTO NE GULF. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. OTTO HAS EMERGED ACROSS THE EPAC ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. FRESH TO STRONG ENE FLOW PERSISTS WELL BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIB ALONG AND N OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE PRODUCING ABUNDANT LLVL MOIST CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS NEXT 48 HOURS. EVENING ALTIMETER DATA SUGGESTS WAVE MODELS A BIT UNDERDONE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS...AND LIKELY IN WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AND WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK AND ELONGATED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SW CARIB NEXT FEW DAYS THAT HELPS TO MAINTAIN LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE N...AND IS EVENTUALLY SHEARED OUT TO THE NE WITH SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS ERN U.S. AND INTO W ATLC AND DIGS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NRN CARIB IN PROCESS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY 72 HOURS WITH DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THIS NE MOVING SURFACE LOW AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE EC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND INTO NE TIP OF CUBA WHILE NARROW RIDGE TO THE N CONTINUES TO FORCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN FRONT AND 23N THIS MORNING. WW3 SEAS A LITTLE LOW AND BETTER CAPTURED BY EC ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE EVENING ALTIMETER SUGGESTED BROAD AREA OF 8-10 FT. RIDGE TO WEAKEN NEXT 24-36 HRS AS NW GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SE AND INTO LOCAL NW ATLC WATERS SAT AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FL ON SUN WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT. BOUNDARY TO THEN MOVE FURTHER SE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND OT FORCING STRONG NE FLOW N TO NW OF FRONT AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS 8-9 FT. SFC FLOW TO VEER QUICKLY ACROSS WRN WATERS MON AND TUE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING NW GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING SLY ACROSS NW WATERS BY TUE AND SE ELSEWHERE W OF 76W. GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ATLC WITH GFS THE OUTLIER ATTM. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.