000
AGXX40 KNHC 230759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES IN THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS SHOW FRESH S-SE WINDS IN THE
NW GULF AS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW FEEDING INTO A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THIS LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS LA TO
BROWNSVILLE TX THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT N AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THU NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N
GULF FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN NE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE OTTO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THU...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND AFFECT COSTA RICA AS WELL. THE SYSTEM HAS A
COMPACT WIND FIELD AND A SMALL AREA OF HIGH SEAS TO 18 FT. SEAS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATED BY OTTO WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER IT
MAKES LANDFALL. HIGH PRES N OF THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF 15N FROM S OF HISPANIOLA WESTWARD
TO HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WITH SEAS REACHING 9-10 FT IN LONGER FETCHES OF STRONGER WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE LATER TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 26N65W.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH FRI...AND SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 26N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS SAT MORNING AND REACH FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW
OF THIS FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO THU. 
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. 
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA
CANAL...
     HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. 
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.