000 AGXX40 KNHC 220800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. IS SHIFTING EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WED...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AGAIN AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS BY LATE THU. THE SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS BY EARLY SAT...WITTH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BY MID WEEK...S OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND THE CENTER OF T.S OTTO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...MAKING LANDFALL BY LATE THU. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN OTTO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WEEK AS OTTO SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL SHIFT SE AND STALL FROM 22N65W TO NORTHERN HAITI BY EARLY THU. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 75W THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING INCREASED WINDS MAINLY S OF 24N BY MID WEEK WITH 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS/CAICOS AND APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND REMAINS N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.