000 AGXX40 KNHC 211930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA IS SHIFTING EAST...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WED...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AGAIN AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS BY LATE THU. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FRONT CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS BY EARLY SAT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BY MID WEEK...S OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM OTTO HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA MAKING LANDFALL IN SE NICARAGUA BY LATE THU. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN OTTO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THIS IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY TUE...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM HAITI TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY EARLY THU. FARTHER EAST...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WEEK AS OTTO SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL SHIFT SE AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM 22N65W TO NORTHERN HAITI BY EARLY THU. NW SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 75W THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING INCREASED WINDS MAINLY S OF 24N BY MID WEEK WITH 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS/CAICOS AND THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SETTLES N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.