000 AGXX40 KNHC 210717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 217 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MISSISSIPPI PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH WED. STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WED NIGHT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND A STATIONARY LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N79W REMAINS LOOSELY ORGANIZED WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING... ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED. THE LOW PRES MAY FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION PERSISTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY WED AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING S OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ASCAT SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...BUT THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE E OF NICARAGUA IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN 20-30 KT WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 30N65W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO HAVANA CUBA. ASCAT DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD N OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN NE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT BY WED IN THIS AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.