000 AGXX40 KNHC 201916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO 22N92W TO 18N93W. STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1530 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE CONDITIONS WERE STILL ONGOING OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED NEAR 10 FT SEAS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OFF TAMPICO...SUPPORTING ESTIMATES OF 14 FT OFF VERACRUZ IN THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SE OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON WED...BUT STALL AND LIFT N OF THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR A STATIONARY LOW CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W IS SOMEWHAT WEAK AT THE MOMENT...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED IN A 1530 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO WEST OF THE LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE LOW PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MAY FORM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IF CONVECTION PERSISTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY WED AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS HAS DISSIPATED. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE IN THE LEE OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS IN THE MAIN PLUME OF WINDS...AND 8 FT IN A LARGE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE NW GULF MON THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH. FARTHER EAST MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH NW FLOW FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...REACHING FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY MON...FROM 26N65W TO EASTERN CUBA TUE...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA N OF 28N. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE S OF 22N BY LATE TUE AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO 28N65W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.