000 AGXX40 KNHC 200800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 23N94W TO 18N96W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST OF MEXICO. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0300 UTC INDICATED 25 TO 35 KT NW WINDS S OF 21N W OF 95W. MAX SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 13-14 FT THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF N OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BASIN BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS W TO E OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COILING AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 11N81W. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD NICARAGUA AFTER TUE NIGHT. A BLEND OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 33 KT IN THIS AREA BY WED. AS A RESULT...THE WIND GRIDS AND PHRASING IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL REFLECT GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF CUBA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA. REINFORCING COOL AIR N OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE NE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS STRONG NNW WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...AND FROM 31N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA MON. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TO COVER THE AREA OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY...WITH SWELL TO 8-9 FT SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 22N TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG 30N BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.