000 AGXX40 KNHC 191839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 139 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRES 1038 MB IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF. THE FRONT REACHES FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO NEAR 20N97W. A 16 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS. WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF VERACRUZ...AND GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FT OFF VERACRUZ BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BASIN STARTING SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS W TO E OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECAME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED EARLIER THIS MORNING AROUND A 1006 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 11N81W. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD BY MID WEEK. FARTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS S OF CUBA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA. A REINFORCING MASS OF COOL AIR BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE NE FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO WESTERN PANAMA TO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 73W FROM A DEEP LOW PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST FROM CAY SAL TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... SOUTH OF A RIDGE FROM NE FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N65W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN...AND FROM 31N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY MON. STRONG NW WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND COVER THE AREA OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN...WITH RESULTANT SWELL TO 9 FT SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 22N BY TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG ROUGHLY 30N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.