000 AGXX40 KNHC 171802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 102 PM EST THU NOV 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SW GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OVER THE NW GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER INLAND MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SW GULF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT GALE WINDS BEGINNING DAYBREAK SATURDAY FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 95W WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO 19N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GALE NORTH OF 22N SHOULD END BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GALE TO THE SOUTH OFF OF VERA CRUZ MAY LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS MAY PEAK NEAR 40 KT AND SEAS TO 13 FT WITH THIS GALE EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS WILL DRIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEE OF CUBA AND DEVELOPING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY AND MERGE WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM NICARAGUA TO JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THEN IS STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO NEAR 31N59W TO 22N65W ON FRIDAY THEN FROM 31N56W TO 22N62W ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL DRAPE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 22N62W AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 27N WITHIN 180 E OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN FROM 31N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION MERGING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST N OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO FRESH ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGER SEAS SUBSIDING ON MONDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.